HISTORICAL PARALLELS BETWEEN TWO WARS: THE CONSEQUENCES OF UNDERESTIMATING THE ADVERSARY AND IGNORING WARNINGS

Abstract

The study of diplomatic scenarios for ending the war becomes especially important for assessing the chances of their implementation and identifying mechanisms that will avoid strategic losses. Imperfect or hasty diplomatic steps can lead to the restriction of Ukraine's sovereignty, the loss of territories, the weakening of international support and the creation of conditions for a further revision of the international order. At the same time, successfully designed scenarios can ensure the preservation of territorial integrity, strengthen security and economic stability, and lay the foundation for the further integration development of Ukraine into European and world structures. Special attention when forming diplomatic scenarios should be paid to the analysis of potential threats to Europe in the event of Russia's victory at the diplomatic level. Such a development of events can legitimize aggressive practices, increase geopolitical instability, create precedents for the violation of international law and the undermining of the collective security system. For the United States and other global players, such changes may mean the need to reassess security strategies and economic influence in Europe and Asia, which complicates international crisis management. The main results of the article include: the results of an analysis of key publications, reports, and scientific studies that reflect current diplomatic steps, initiatives, and debates on ending the war; possible diplomatic scenarios for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war are proposed, divided into short-term (0.5–1 year), medium-term (1–2 years), and long-term (>2 years) horizons; a detailed description of the scenarios of the Russian-Ukrainian war for different horizons and possible ways of their implementation, as well as the consequences of a particular scenario for Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the world as a whole, is formed; the main practical recommendations for Ukrainian diplomacy today are identified. The materials of the article will be useful to specialists in the field of national and military security, strategic communications, military affairs, analysts, specialists in international relations, and scholars in the field of political and military sciences.