Review of markets and forecasting the estimated value of artistic creatives (Part II – regional markets)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32461/2226-3209.1.2018.160172Keywords:
Artistic works, analysis of top sales of paintings on a world and regional art markets, multipliers, a forecast of the estimated value.Abstract
The purpose of the work: The constant attention of experts who are exploring art markets is attracting complex and ambiguous questions about the pricing of works that turn them around. There are various approaches to forecasting their estimated value of 1. The purpose of this work is the proposal of a new formalized model, which will help in forecasting investors in the arts. Methodology: The basis of the proposed method is the exponential model of cost growth (EMR), which allows, based on the history of changing prices for a work of art, to simulate a forecast of its future estimated value. As a starting point in modeling, sales figures of paintings were used in different sections: the most expensive world sales over the past 80 years, randomly selected paintings by old masters, TOP paintings sales in the Russian and Ukrainian art markets. The scientific novelty of the work is that when determining the estimated value of the paintings, the concept of "the rate of growth of value" was introduced, which allowed in the analysis to abstract from the real value of the price of the work, and therefore to study the dynamics of changes in prices, over which the "million" price of some did not gravitate toward them. A mathematical model that describes this option accelerated the necessary calculations significantly and eventually gave the opportunity to facilitate a standard interpretation of the results. Conclusions. The predictions made it possible to determine the most attractive for investors the rate of profitability growth and build on their basis multipliers, useful for use when evaluating evaluators of works of art.
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