THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION: ASSESSMENT OF PROSPECTS ON THE BASIS OF LONG-TERM CYCLE CREATION OF THE ADVANCING DEVELOPMENT
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32461/2226-3209.3.2018.171835Keywords:
long-term economic cycles, the fourth industrial revolution, technological paradigms, national economy, phase shifts, advanced development cycles, economic agents' expectations, forecasting, modeling, cross-correlation analysis.Abstract
Abstract. The subject of the study is the mechanisms for long-term economic cycles of advanced
development, forming views and predictive assessments concerning the prospects and the horizons of the phase shifts of future economic system. The object of the study is the evolution of the national economy in the context of long-term economic cycle modeling. The authors, using the mechanisms of long-term expectations modeling from economic agents during the period from 1962 to 2000, reveal the trajectories of phase shifts in Russian economy. This made it possible not only to identify the nature of national economy cyclical development during the considered period, but also to justify scientifically the prospects and the parameters of so-called fourth industrial revolution coming to Russian Federation. The methodology of the study is based on the tools of economic and mathematical modeling of the studied
set of factors, the mechanisms of cross-correlation analysis of time statistic series, generalization and grouping methods and factor analysis. It was proved on the basis of the developed methodology of advanced development cycle creation and its approbation on the system of national economy statistical data over the last 60 years, that the socio-economic crisis of the 1990=ies in the economic system was conditioned not only by the institutional changes that have taken place, but also to the fact that during this period the long-term economic cycle entered the phase of decline, which was transforming into a revival phase at the turn of the late 2000s and early 2010s, that allows us to fully justify the
conclusion that the phase of long-term growth in Russian economy will come no earlier than in 2020-2025.
Keywords: long-term economic cycles, the fourth industrial revolution, technological paradigms, national
economy, phase shifts, advanced development cycles, economic agents' expectations, forecasting, modeling, cross-correlation analysis.
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