Goroshkova L., Volkov V. Modeling of motor industry of Ukraine.

Abstract

In work the carried out modeling of cyclical development of motor industry of Ukraine in 2000 - 2014 and certain interrelation of cyclical development of branch with macroeconomical parameters of development of the country. Presence of such features, as the intermediate-term cycles of development of motor industry during an intermediate-term cycle of development of economy of Ukraine are proved by necessity at organization intermediate-term both long-term planning and further forecasting of development of a national economy first of all at first to study an economic condition at a level of separate branch of economy (motor industry), and already then - at a level of national economy. The research of development of motor industry with the purpose of reception of an opportunity of modeling of economic processes at a level of branch of economy and modeling of the basic parameters of his development, testifies to expediency of study not only average, and first of all of small cycles.The received results of the analysis of functioning of motor industry during 2000 - 2014 have allowed to reach a conclusion that the motor industry of Ukraine till 2009 developed according to economical to the tendencies of the country, that is were observed recessions and rises in branch. After 2009 the branch could not leave from crisis and has appeared in a catastrophic condition. The stable increase of volumes of manufacture of units, details and accessories to vehicles testifies that the proof recession of manufacture of new vehicles in Ukraine stimulated increases of volumes of manufacture of units and details, which form the basis repair base of a vehicle maintained in the country.The received results of the analysis have allowed to reach a conclusion, that in case the situation in branch will not be improved, the country can motor industry in general.