Devising a method for the estimation and prediction of technical condition of ship complex systems
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2016.85605Keywords:
complex technical systems, risk of failure, estimation of technical condition, prediction of technical condition, cognitive modelsAbstract
In the course of devising and examining a method for the estimation and prediction of technical condition of ship CTS, operated under conditions of unpredictable extreme and technogenic impacts, we received new theoretical and practical results. A place in the hierarchy and topology of the FIIS elements of ship CTS is defined based on the characteristics of the energy, material and information resources used by the systems in the devised method for the estimation and prediction of technical condition of CTS.
The most vulnerable elements of FIIS of ship CTS are found with regard to their weight values in the systems, obtained by cognitive imitation and fuzzy simulation. The CTS elements, prone to failures, are determined by their advance detection by modeling the processes of decision making support in the search for reasons of failures. The strategy of restoring the FIIS elements of ship CTS with decision making support when searching for the reasons of their failures is based on the prediction of change in the probability of losing working ability and risk of failures of the elements. The obtained results improve reliability of ship CTS in the operation under conditions of extreme and technogenic impacts.
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Copyright (c) 2016 Vladimir Vychuzhanin, Nikolay Rudnichenko, Victor Boyko, Natalia Shibaeva, Sergii Konovalov
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