Predicting the estimated time of cargo dispatch from a marshaling yard

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2020.209912

Keywords:

railroad, marshaling yard, cargo dispatch, expected departure time, machine learning

Abstract

A method has been proposed to predict the expected departure time for a cargo dispatch at the marshaling yard in a railroad system without complying with a freight trains departure schedule. The impact of various factors on the time over which a wagon dispatch stays within a marshaling system has been studied using a correlation analysis. The macro parameters of a transportation process that affect most the time over which a wagon dispatch stays within a marshaling system have been determined. To improve the input data informativeness, it has been proposed to use a data partitioning method that makes it possible to properly take into consideration the impact of different factors on the duration of downtime of dispatches at a station. A method has been developed to forecast the expected cargo dispatch time at a marshaling yard, which is based on the random forest machine learning method; the prediction accuracy has been tested. A mathematical forecasting model is represented in the form of solving the problem of multiclassification employing the processing of data with a large number of attributes and classes. A classification method with a trainer has been used. The random forest optimization was performed by selecting hyperparameters for the mathematical prediction model based on a random search. The undertaken experimental study involved data on the operation of an out-of-class marshaling yard in the railroad network of Ukraine. The forecasting accuracy of classification for dispatching from the wagon flow "transit without processing" is 86 % of the correct answers; for dispatching from the wagon flow "transit with processing" is 54 %.

The approach applied to predict the expected time of a cargo dispatch makes it possible to considerably improve the accuracy of obtained forecasts taking into consideration the actual operational situation at a marshaling yard. That would provide for a reasonable approach to the development of an automated system to predict the duration of operations involving cargo dispatches in a railroad system

Author Biographies

Artem Panchenko, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University Svobody sq., 4, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61022

Department Artificial Intelligence and Software

Andrii Prokhorchenko, Ukrainian State University of Railway Transport Feierbakha sq., 7, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61001

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor

Department of Operational Work Management

Sergii Panchenko, Ukrainian State University of Railway Transport Feierbakha sq., 7, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61001

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Automation and Computer Telecontrol of Train Traffic

Oleksandr Dekarchuk, Ukrainian State University of Railway Transport Feierbakha sq., 7, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61001

Postgraduate Student

Department of Operational Work Management

Dmytro Gurin, Ukrainian State University of Railway Transport Feierbakha sq., 7, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61001

Postgraduate Student

Department of Operational Work Management

Ievgen Medvediev, Volodymyr Dahl East Ukrainian National University Tsentralnyi ave., 59-a, Severodonetsk, Ukraine, 93400

PhD

Department of Logistics Management and Traffic Safety in Transport

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Published

2020-08-31

How to Cite

Panchenko, A., Prokhorchenko, A., Panchenko, S., Dekarchuk, O., Gurin, D., & Medvediev, I. (2020). Predicting the estimated time of cargo dispatch from a marshaling yard. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 4(3 (106), 6–15. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2020.209912

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 3 (106) (2020): Control processes

Section

Control processes

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Copyright (c) 2020 Artem Panchenko, Andrii Prokhorchenko, Sergii Panchenko, Oleksandr Dekarchuk, Dmytro Gurin, Ievgen Medvediev

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