The hurst method in analyzing the technical condition and fuel economy of a locomotive
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2014.29353Keywords:
analysis, deviation, dependency, interval, method, index, expansion, fractal, time seriesAbstract
The paper considers a possibility of using the Hurst method for analyzing time series. At present, improvement of locomotive efficiency monitoring methods allows expansion of the possibilities for analyzing and predicting the considered dimensions. The devised methods of prediction are based on the nonlinear dynamics, the theory of fractals, and mathematical statistics to determine the current technical condition of a diesel and generator set of locomotives, to correct the time between overhauls, and to introduce respective corrections in the planned dependencies for calculating the operational fuel consumption. We have specified the fundamentals for estimating the Hurst fractal index and analyzing its nature for different conditions of the time series components. It is determined that the time series analysis is preconditioned by the length of the series and the number of the studied intervals rather than the number of observations.
The calculation and assessment of the Hurst index for the time series of locomotive fuel consumption served as the basis for the suggested monitoring of the technical condition as well as the devised method for calculating the ultimate resource of the fuel equipment, which facilitates planning and implementing its adjustments and repairs.
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Copyright (c) 2014 Володимир Ілліч Дробаха, Олексій Дмитрович Трихліб
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