Development of an intelligent system for the prognostication of energy produced by photovoltaic cells in smart grid systems

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.112278

Keywords:

neural-fuzzy network, SMART GRID, MICROGRID, photovoltaic cell panel, prognostication of produced energy

Abstract

Solution of the problem of prognostication of the generated energy was proposed on the basis of mathematical apparatus of neural-fuzzy networks. The conceptual model of the household information system as a part of the common SMART GRID system was proposed. The main task of this system is continuous monitoring of the power net, prognostication of consumption of the energy consumed by domestic appliances and the energy produced by photovoltaic cell panels. Current and predicted data were obtained based on the use of current sensors and mathematical apparatus of neural-fuzzy logic. Importance and necessity of using SMART GRID technology for improving efficiency of power net operation was shown. Application of such systems can reduce energy costs and the environmental impact of energy systems. This effect is achieved by prognostication of the energy generated by domestic renewable energy sources, in particular photovoltaic cell panels which ensures more efficient energy management.

Also, the proposed model of the information system makes it possible to account produced and consumed energy which enables creation of an energy-efficient operation schedule of household appliances. Analysis of the dependence of the forecast accuracy on the choice of input characteristics was made. As a result, the optimal number of neurons in the inner layer was empirically set to 250 with a prediction error within 5 %. Influence of weather factors on accuracy of the resulting forecasts was considered. In particular, it has been found that quite significant differences between actual and projected data (up to 12 %) are due to the inaccuracy of local forecasts. The proposed information model can be integrated into existing or designed systems of the Smart Home type.

Author Biographies

Andreу Kupin, Kryvyi Rih National University Vitaliya Matusevycha str., 11, Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, 50027

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Head of Department

Department of Computer Systems and Networks

Irina Vdovychenko, Kryvyi Rih National University Vitaliya Matusevycha str., 11, Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, 50027

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Computer Systems and Networks

Ivan Muzyka, Kryvyi Rih National University Vitaliya Matusevycha str., 11, Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, 50027

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Computer Systems and Networks

Dennis Kuznetsov, Kryvyi Rih National University Vitaliya Matusevycha str., 11, Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, 50027

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Computer Systems and Networks

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Published

2017-10-30

How to Cite

Kupin, A., Vdovychenko, I., Muzyka, I., & Kuznetsov, D. (2017). Development of an intelligent system for the prognostication of energy produced by photovoltaic cells in smart grid systems. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 5(8 (89), 4–9. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.112278

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 8 (89) (2017): ENERGY-SAVING TECHNOLOGIES AND EQUIPMENT

Section

Energy-saving technologies and equipment

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Copyright (c) 2017 Andreу Kupin, Irina Vdovychenko, Ivan Muzyka, Dennis Kuznetsov

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