Informative providing of task of prognostication of feasibility indicators of functioning of technological complex
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2013.14866Keywords:
forecasting, technological complex, technical and economic parametersAbstract
The article discusses the technological complex (TC) of sugar refinery, the operation of which is characterized by a system of indicators that are directly used in the information management system. Traditional methods of evaluation of technical and economic parameters are based on a retrospective analysis, i.e. on the calculations for a certain period (day, decade, month, year), which does not provide a possibility to make operational management decisions.
Forecasting in the management system is a pre-planning design of multivariate models of development of the management object. Terms, volumes of work, numerical properties of the object and other indicators are of probabilistic nature and must include the possibility of making adjustments.
The problem of forecasting lies in determination of the probability values of the parameters that characterize the system, and data about the future state of a system or object, based on the study of its change mechanism in past and present. The purpose of forecasting of management decisions is sciencebased tendencies of the development of quality, cost elements and other indicators
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