Development of intelligent demographic forecasting system
Keywords:demographic processes, population growth, demographic forecasting method, fuzzy time series
AbstractThe scientific methodological and functional principles of the intelligent decision support system for the management of demographic situation based on predictions are developed. Predictions (prognosis) of the changes in the number of the population, its age-gender structure, birth, life expectancy, mortality, etc. constitute the basis of socio-economic development. Thus, the modeling of demographic processes is considered for scientifically justified decisions regarding the management of the future demographic situation. The characteristics of the process are analyzed, and the features justifying the occurrence of this process in an uncertainty and fuzzy environment are identified. A fuzzy time series model is proposed for modeling the demographic processes. The demographic prediction technique is developed on the example of prediction of the total number of population. Based on the proposed methodology, software for the demographic forecasting system is developed. The functional scheme of the system is presented, and the working principle of its blocks and their interaction are explained. The working principle of the knowledge base, which executes the analytics of predictions and identifies the predictions related to the demographic situation referring to the knowledge production model, is described. The realization of such a system can support demographers and analysts in predicting the future demographic situation and making decisions on the management of respective demographic situation
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