Assessment of risks structurally and functionally complex technical systems
Keywords:complex technical systems, structural and functional risks, cognitive simulation model
Despite the large amount of discussions concerning the definition of technical condition of complex technical systems (CTS) on risk assessment, the most vulnerable interrelated and interacting components of such systems in various emergency scenarios when assessing the structural and functional risks are still determined as a result of complex procedures, containing nonlinear operations.In this paper, the CTS structural and functional risk assessments in emergency scenarios were defined using the cognitive simulation model, represented as a directed graph, as well as by the calculation results. Destructive transmission pulses are used for modeling the destructive effect of each component on the CTS structure. Normalizing effect on the vertices and edges of the model digraph is used to assess the CTS functional risk.A software package is presented in the paper, and the calculation results of assessment of structural and functional risks of interrelated CTS components, obtained with its help are described.The results of development and research, which consider the structural and functional features, interrelation and interaction of elements and inter-element relations in the CTS hierarchy and topology in emergency scenarios are given. The method for assessing the structural and functional risks does not contain labor-intensive, complex procedures and will allow to automate the decision-making process in CTS emergency scenarios.
- Гуськов, А. В. Надежность технических систем и техногенный риск [Текст] / А. В. Гуськов, К. Е. Милевский. – Новосиб. Гос. Ун-т. – Новосибирск, 2007. – 427 с.
- Кочкарев, А. А. Обеспечение стойкости сложных систем. Структурные аспекты [Текст] / А. А. Кочкарев, Г. Г. Малинецкий. – РАН. – Москва, 2005. – 43 с.
- Рябинин, И. А. Надежность и безопасность структурно-сложных систем [Текст] / И. А. Рябинин. – СПб.: Изд-во С.-Петерб. ун-та, 2007. – 276 с.
- Klein, J. H. An approach to technical risk assessment [Теxt] / J. H. Klein, R. B. Cork // International Journal of Project Management. – 1998. – 16 (6). – Р. 345-351.
- Rausand, M. System Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods, and Applications, Second Edition [Теxt] / M. Rausand, A. Hoyland. – Wiley-Interscience, 2003. – 351 p.
- Covello, V. T. Risk Assessment Methods. Approaches for Assessing Health and Environmental Risks [Теxt] / V. T. Covello, M. W. Merkhofer. – Plenum Press, New York and London, 1993. – 319 р.
- O’Neill, John Technical Risk Assessment: a Practitioner’s Guide [Теxt] / John O’Neill, Nitin Thakur, Alan Duus. – Australia, 2007. – 29 р.
- Henley Ernest, J. Reliability engineering and risk assessment. [Теxt] / J. Ernest Henley, Hiromitsu Kumamoto. – New York : IEEE Press, Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J. - 1992. – 568 р.
- Kertzner, P. Process Control System Security Technical Risk Assessment Methodology & Technical Implementation [Теxt] / P. Kertzner, J. Watters, D. Bodeau // Research Report. – 2008. – № 13. – 47 р.
- Birnbraun, Z. W. On the importance of different components in a multicomponent system. Multivariate Analyses [Теxt] / Z. W. Birnbraun. – New York: Academic Press, 1969. – Р. 581– 592.
- Guskov, A. V. (2007). Reliability of technical systems and technological hazards. Novosibirsk, 427.
- Kochkryov, A .A. (2005). Ensuring stability of complex systems. Structural aspects. Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 43.
- Ryabinin, I. A. (2007). Reliability and safety of structurally complex systems. St. Petersburg. Univ St. Petersburg . University Press, 276.
- Klein, J. H. (1998). An approach to technical risk assessment. International Journal of Project Managemen, 16 (6), 345 - 351.
- Rausand, M. A., Hoyland, A. (2003). System Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods, and Applications, Second Edition. Wiley-Interscience, 351.
- Covello, V. T. Merkhofer, M. W. (1993). Risk Assessment Methods. Approaches for Assessing Health and Environmental Risks. New York and London Plenum Press, 319.
- O’Neill, John, Thakur Nitin, Duus Alan (2007). Technical Risk Assessment: a Practitioner’s Guide. Australia, 29.
- Henley Ernest, J., Kumamoto, Hiromitsu. (1992). Reliability engineering and risk assessment. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, 568.
- Kertzner, P., Watters, J., Bodeau, D. (2008). Process Control System Security Technical Risk Assessment Methodology & Technical Implementation. Research Report, 13, 47.
- Birnbraun, Z. W. (1969) On the importance of different components in a multicomponent system.Multivariate Analyses. New York: Academic Press, 581-592.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2014 Владимир Викторович Вычужанин, Николай Дмитриевич Рудниченко
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The consolidation and conditions for the transfer of copyright (identification of authorship) is carried out in the License Agreement. In particular, the authors reserve the right to the authorship of their manuscript and transfer the first publication of this work to the journal under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license. At the same time, they have the right to conclude on their own additional agreements concerning the non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form in which it was published by this journal, but provided that the link to the first publication of the article in this journal is preserved.
A license agreement is a document in which the author warrants that he/she owns all copyright for the work (manuscript, article, etc.).
The authors, signing the License Agreement with PC TECHNOLOGY CENTER, have all rights to the further use of their work, provided that they link to our edition in which the work was published.
According to the terms of the License Agreement, the Publisher PC TECHNOLOGY CENTER does not take away your copyrights and receives permission from the authors to use and dissemination of the publication through the world's scientific resources (own electronic resources, scientometric databases, repositories, libraries, etc.).
In the absence of a signed License Agreement or in the absence of this agreement of identifiers allowing to identify the identity of the author, the editors have no right to work with the manuscript.
It is important to remember that there is another type of agreement between authors and publishers – when copyright is transferred from the authors to the publisher. In this case, the authors lose ownership of their work and may not use it in any way.