Development of a multinomial logitmodel to choose a transportation mode for intercity travel
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2020.205868Keywords:
multi-nominal logit-model, movement mode, utility of choice, external transport hubAbstract
Reducing the share of the use of automobiles in intercity passenger transportation is one of the ways to achieve the goals of sustainable development in transport that could positively affect the environment. The purpose of this work is to determine, based on the analysis of the results of polling conducted in the city of Lviv, Ukraine, trends in the selection of an external transport hub (ETH) by the transportation system users for a subsequent intercity trip. To this end, a multinomial logit model of ETH selection has been constructed, based on calculating the utility of students' choice of a railway and a bus hub. Multi-nominal logit models (MLM) are widely used to simulate the behavior of users, as evidenced by numerous studies. Their correct application requires that a set of factors should be defined that influence making a choice and the MLM coefficients should be calculated, based on studying users' behavior within a specific design area. The factors affecting the choice of a type of an external transport hub are the characteristics of an ETH (the throughput and the number of dispatches in a certain direction) and the duration and cost of a trip. The impact of these factors differs depending on the trip length: we have calculated the MLM coefficients for selecting an ETH type separately for travel up to 100 km in length, from 100 to 200 km, and more than 200 km. In addition, such indicators as the duration of a city trip and the time interval of dispatching were introduced in the model; however, the process of calculating the significance of the logit-model parameters revealed that these indicators did not exert significant influence on the users within the studied group. The result of this study is the defined characteristics of the performed trips with the hub-based distribution. The data obtained would contribute to a better understanding of the behavior of users of this class when they choose the mode of intercity travel and could be used to optimize the functioning of external transport hubsReferences
- State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
- Korgenevich, I. Р., Barash, Yu. S., Charkina, Т. Yu. (2012). Principles of prognosis estimation of charges on liquidation of consequences from harmful influence on society and environment of motor and railway transport. Zbirnyk naukovykh prats Dnipropetrovskoho natsionalnoho universytetu zaliznychnoho transportu im. ak. V. Lazariana «Problemy ekonomiky transportu», 3, 102–109. Available at: http://eadnurt.diit.edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/3563/1/21.pdf
- Hair, J. F., Ringle, C. M., Gudergan, S. P., Fischer, A., Nitzl, C., Menictas, C. (2018). Partial least squares structural equation modeling-based discrete choice modeling: an illustration in modeling retailer choice. Business Research, 12 (1), 115–142. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40685-018-0072-4
- Lai, X., Schonfeld, P. (2016). Concurrent Optimization of Rail Transit Alignments and Station Locations. Urban Rail Transit, 2 (1), 1–15. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40864-016-0033-1
- Nuzzolo, A., Crisalli, U., Comi, A. (2008). A demand model for international freight transport by road. European Transport Research Review, 1 (1), 23–33. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12544-008-0003-0
- Gatta, V., Marcucci, E., Nigro, M., Serafini, S. (2019). Sustainable urban freight transport adopting public transport-based crowdshipping for B2C deliveries. European Transport Research Review, 11 (1). doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-019-0352-x
- König, A., Grippenkoven, J. (2019). Modelling travelers’ appraisal of ridepooling service characteristics with a discrete choice experiment. European Transport Research Review, 12 (1). doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-019-0391-3
- Cascetta, E. (2009). Transportation Systems Analysis. Models and Applications. Springer. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-75857-2
- Talluri, K. T., Van Ryzin, G. J. (2004). The theory and practice of revenue management. Springer. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
- De Witte, A., Hollevoet, J., Dobruszkes, F., Hubert, M., Macharis, C. (2013). Linking modal choice to motility: A comprehensive review. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 49, 329–341. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2013.01.009
- Fan, A., Chen, X., Wan, T. (2019). How Have Travelers Changed Mode Choices for First/Last Mile Trips after the Introduction of Bicycle-Sharing Systems: An Empirical Study in Beijing, China. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2019, 1–16. doi: https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/5426080
- Kim, I., Kim, H.-C., Seo, D.-J., Kim, J. I. (2019). Calibration of a transit route choice model using revealed population data of smartcard in a multimodal transit network. Transportation. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-019-10008-8
- Hidayat, R. (2018). Mode Choice Analysis Between Private Car, Transjakarta (BRT) and KRL Commuter Line (Railway) Using Multinomial Logit Model and Social Economic Background of Passenger Case Study. Bekasi-Jakarta Commuter, Universitas Gadjah Mada.
- Sato, K., Chen, Y. (2018). Analysis of high-speed rail and airline transport cooperation in presence of non-purchase option. Journal of Modern Transportation, 26 (4), 231–254. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-018-0172-z
- Bilous, A. B., Mohyla, I. A. (2011). Мultifactorial fuzzy analysis for transfer demand modeling to touristic towns. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 1 (4 (49)), 32–38. Available at: http://journals.uran.ua/eejet/article/view/1910/1805
- Kuznar, M., Wyraz, E. (2016). Analysis of the most popular interurban transport modes among cracow students of state universities. 13th International Conference on Industrial Logistics: Conference Proceedings. Zakopane, 128–135. Available at: http://www.icil.zarz.agh.edu.pl/images/papers/Kuznar_Wyraz.pdf
- Lakatos, A., Mándoki, P. (2020). Mode-choice Analysis in Long-distance, Parallel Public Transport. Transportation Research Procedia, 44, 332–341. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2020.02.034
- Sivilevičius, H., Maskeliūnaitė, L. (2019). The Model Assessing the Impact of Price and Provided Services on the Quality of the Trip by Train: MCDM Approach. E+M Ekonomie a Management, 22 (2), 51–67. doi: https://doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2019-2-004
- Gorbachev, P. F., Makarichev, A. V., Svichinskaja, O. V. (2013). Methods to form model of choosing variant of working travel by fixed route transport. Al'manah sovremennoy nauki i obrazovaniya, 11, 47–58. Available at: https://www.gramota.net/materials/1/2013/11/13.html
- Holovne upravlinnia statystyky u Lvivskiy oblasti. Available at: https://www.lv.ukrstat.gov.ua/ukr/themes/09/theme_09.php?code=9
- Ratrout, N. T., Gazder, U., Madani, H. M. N. A. (2014). A review of mode choice modelling techniques for intra-city and border transport. World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research, 5 (1), 39. doi: https://doi.org/10.1504/writr.2014.065055
- Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., Friedman, Je. (2001). The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction. Springer. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-21606-5
- Zhuk, M. M., Pivtorak, H. V. (2019). The evaluation the flow attracted by external transport hub in Lviv. Scientific Notes of Taurida National V.I. Vernadsky University. Series: Technical Sciences, 6 (2), 162–169. doi: https://doi.org/10.32838/2663-5941/2019.6-2/29
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 Mykola Zhuk, Halyna Pivtorak, Volodymyr Kovalyshyn, Ivanna Gits
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The consolidation and conditions for the transfer of copyright (identification of authorship) is carried out in the License Agreement. In particular, the authors reserve the right to the authorship of their manuscript and transfer the first publication of this work to the journal under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license. At the same time, they have the right to conclude on their own additional agreements concerning the non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form in which it was published by this journal, but provided that the link to the first publication of the article in this journal is preserved.
A license agreement is a document in which the author warrants that he/she owns all copyright for the work (manuscript, article, etc.).
The authors, signing the License Agreement with TECHNOLOGY CENTER PC, have all rights to the further use of their work, provided that they link to our edition in which the work was published.
According to the terms of the License Agreement, the Publisher TECHNOLOGY CENTER PC does not take away your copyrights and receives permission from the authors to use and dissemination of the publication through the world's scientific resources (own electronic resources, scientometric databases, repositories, libraries, etc.).
In the absence of a signed License Agreement or in the absence of this agreement of identifiers allowing to identify the identity of the author, the editors have no right to work with the manuscript.
It is important to remember that there is another type of agreement between authors and publishers – when copyright is transferred from the authors to the publisher. In this case, the authors lose ownership of their work and may not use it in any way.