A method for building a forecasting model with dynamic weights

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2014.21189

Keywords:

time series forecasting, linear regression, Bayesian model averaging, neural networks

Abstract


The forecasting task and some of the main problems, that occur while solving it, were examined in the paper. The main existing forecasting methods, that unfortunately do not take into account these problems, were listed together with their short description. We propose a new approach for building the forecasting methods, which considers some of the mentioned problems. Based on this approach, we constructed a new forecasting method, called ‘linear regression with dynamic weights’, which finds concrete values of weights for the input factors depending on the values of the factors themselves. To test the forecasting abilities of the method we used the set of real time series, for which we built a forecasting model using the proposed method, the “ancestor” method – pure linear regression and the group method of data handling. By analyzing the results we show that the new method produced (on average) better forecasting error than the linear regression, and for some time series its error was better than the group method of data handling produced. In a conclusion we suggested some ways for the future improvement of the method

Author Biographies

Vladyslav Gorbatiuk, National technical university of Ukraine "Kyiv polytechnique institute"

First year student of master's degree

Department of Technical Cybernetics

Victor Sineglazov, Institute of aerospace control systems, National Aviation University Komarov Ave, 1, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03680

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Aviation Computer-Integrated Systems

Olena Chumachenko, National Technical University of Ukraine «Kyiv Polytechnic Institute» Peremogy Ave, 37, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03056

Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor

Department of Technical Cybernetics

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Published

2014-04-08

How to Cite

Gorbatiuk, V., Sineglazov, V., & Chumachenko, O. (2014). A method for building a forecasting model with dynamic weights. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2(4(68), 4–8. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2014.21189

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 4(68) (2014): Mathematics and Cybernetics - applied aspects

Section

Mathematics and Cybernetics - applied aspects

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Copyright (c) 2014 Vladyslav Gorbatiuk, Victor Sineglazov, Olena Chumachenko

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