Analysis of transport systems development forecasting method

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2014.23152

Keywords:

forecasting methods, sustainable transport systems, ForFITS Model, CO2 emission

Abstract

Despite the availability of a large number of different methods for industrial sector forecasting, there is a shortage of methods that could provide a reliable fore-cast of the Ukrainian transport system development.

Forecasting the transport system development is particularly important forUkraineas a country that has been at the stage of its economy reconstruction. Identi-fication of trends in the development of the transport industry allows making deci-sions that could contribute to the achievement of sustainable development goals of the entire nation.

Various methods of long-term forecasting have been analyzed and classified in the paper. The ForFITS Model developed by the United Nations Economic Commis-sion for Europe was chosen to forecast the transport activity to provide passenger transportation, energy use, and CO2 emission inUkraine.

On the basis of the existing trends, using the ForFITS Model we have made a preliminary forecast of the Ukrainian transport system development, which has re-vealed a high degree of dependence of the Model on the quality of the initial informa-tion and made it possible to develop a concept of rational forecasting horizon

Author Biographies

Петро Федорович Горбачов, Kharkov National Automobile and Highway University Str. Petrovsky, 25, Kharkov, Ukraine, 61002

Professor, Head of Department

Department of Transport Systems and Logistics

Анна Александровна Самчук, Kharkov National Automobile and Highway University Str. Petrovsky, 25, Kharkov, Ukraine, 61002

PhD applicant

Department of Transport Systems and Logistics

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Published

2014-04-08

How to Cite

Горбачов, П. Ф., & Самчук, А. А. (2014). Analysis of transport systems development forecasting method. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2(3(68), 29–34. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2014.23152

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 3(68) (2014): Control processes

Section

Control processes

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Copyright (c) 2014 Петро Федорович Горбачов, Анна Александровна Самчук

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