Development of a method for assessing the functioning of a grain product sub-complex using mathematical modeling

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2023.276433

Keywords:

assessment methodology, growth rate, integral indicator, mathematical modeling, agro-industrial complex

Abstract

The object of the study is the process of functioning of enterprises of the grain product subcomplex. In the course of the study, the problem of the growth rate and the peculiarities of the functioning of enterprises of the grain product subcomplex were solved.

An assessment of the functioning of the grain product subcomplex was carried out Republic of Kazakhstan using mathematical modeling, for which a methodology has been developed that allows considering factors with a heterogeneous metric, which includes the following steps:

1) index analysis twenty-one indicators, divided into groups;

2) development of formulas for calculation and integral indicators characterizing their dynamics;

3) determining the pace of functioning of the grain product subcomplex for 2011–2021. Graphs were made and a forecast of the performance indicators of the subcomplex until 2024 is presented for one of each group with the maximum coefficient of determination R2. According to three scenarios: optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic. R2 is an indicator of the quality of forecasts: than the closer its value is to one, the higher the probability of execution. For eleven charts, the coefficient of determination is in the range from 0.9003 (pessimistic forecast for other industrial use of grain) to 0.9838 (optimistic forecast for the number of granaries). For ten, from 0.8025 to 0.8702, and for nine, from 0.705 to 0.7932. This means that the reliability of the calculations for twenty-nine forecast options is in the range from 70 to 98 %. This indicates fairly objective predictive values of the subcomplex performance indicators until 2024. Based on the results of the studies, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are more likely to be implemented.

Author Biographies

Perizat Beisekova, Esil University

Master of Economics, Senior Lecturer

Assel Ilyas, Almaty Technological University

Candidate of Economic Sciences, senior Lecturer

Department of Economics and Management

Yelena Kaliyeva, Almaty Technological University

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor

Department of Accounting and Finance

Zhanar Kirbetova, Almaty Technological University

Master of Economics, Lecturer

Department of Economics and Management

Meruert Baimoldayeva, International Technical and Humanitarian University

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Lecturer

Department of Business and Management

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Development of a method for assessing the functioning of a grain product sub-complex using mathematical modeling

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Published

2023-04-29

How to Cite

Beisekova, P., Ilyas, A., Kaliyeva, Y., Kirbetova, Z., & Baimoldayeva, M. (2023). Development of a method for assessing the functioning of a grain product sub-complex using mathematical modeling. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2(13 (122), 92–101. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2023.276433

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 13 (122) (2023): Transfer of technologies: industry, energy, nanotechnology

Section

Transfer of technologies: industry, energy, nanotechnology

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Copyright (c) 2023 Perizat Beisekova, Assel Ilyas, Yelena Kaliyeva, Zhanar Kirbetova, Meruert Baimoldayeva

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