Development and justification of the system methodological approach to assessing the investment business project implementation efficiency under conditions of the external market environment factors impact

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2023.279621

Keywords:

mathematical model, forecasting the effectiveness of a business project, synergistic approach, net present value

Abstract

Evaluating the effectiveness of the implementation of an investment project is a key issue when making management decisions both at the stage of setting up a startup and for expanding an existing business.

This paper reports a systematic approach to building a mathematical model to solve the task of forecasting the effectiveness of business projects, taking into account the influence of factors of the external economic environment. Proposed factors include the impact of supply and demand on the price of goods, political and industry risks, the volume of commodity supply and sales. In view of this, a method for calculating the political component of the discount coefficient using the Fourier series has been proposed. Using the theory of differential equations, correlation and regression analysis, a mathematical model for forecasting indicators of efficiency of business project implementation taking into account the influence of factors of the external economic environment has been constructed. Based on it, a generalized algorithm for applying a mathematical model to predict the effectiveness of investment projects in various business sectors has been developed.

The results from applying differential equations and variable discount coefficient showed a decrease in NPV by 14 %, and PI by 5.1 %, due to more accurate consideration of the political component in calculating the discount factor. Also, with the influence of supply and demand on the price of goods and nonlinear cash flows, it was found that the payback period does not clearly indicate the effectiveness of the implementation of an investment business project. Determining these factors provides more accurate information to the investor or business owner when forecasting the stability of a business project for making management decisions on its implementation

Author Biographies

Dmytro Kabachenko, Dnipro University of Technology

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Economics and Economic Cybernetics

Erik Lapkhanov, Institute of Technical Mechanics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space Agency of Ukraine

PhD (Doctor of Philosophy), Researcher

Department of System Analysis and Control Problems

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Development and justification of the system methodological approach to assessing the investment business project implementation efficiency under conditions of the external market environment factors impact

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Published

2023-06-30

How to Cite

Kabachenko, D., & Lapkhanov, E. (2023). Development and justification of the system methodological approach to assessing the investment business project implementation efficiency under conditions of the external market environment factors impact. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 3(3 (123), 6–21. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2023.279621

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 3 (123) (2023): Control processes

Section

Control processes

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Copyright (c) 2023 Dmytro Kabachenko, Erik Lapkhanov

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