Construction of a simulation model for monitoring and managing environmental risks in railroad transportation accidents involving hazardous goods

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2025.344643

Keywords:

simulation model, environmental risk management, uncertainty, hazardous goods, rail transport

Abstract

This study’s object is the process of monitoring and managing environmental risks in railroad accidents involving transportation of hazardous goods.

A problem has been identified, related to the absence of a single, holistic approach to risk management during transportation, which would integrate methods of spatial-temporal forecasting with a formal assessment of uncertainty. A mathematical model has been suggested that makes it possible to process and analyze data acquired from a mobile automated air quality monitoring system (MAAQMS). The established dependences laid the foundation for the machine learning and statistical analysis model used in the operation of a simulation model (SM) of monitoring and managing environmental risks.

The simulation model, unlike similar ones, has been developed in the following directions:

1) representation of data and processing of omissions;

2) construction of probabilistic risk maps taking into account uncertainty and calibration of forecasts of the state of environmental pollution at the accident site;

3) adaptation of the model in case of data variability at the accident site;

4) multi-criteria optimization of management decisions.

In summary, the simulation model reported in this study provides decision-makers with the prospect of not only predicting the probability of exceeding the maximum permissible concentrations (MPC) of pollutants on the railroad infrastructure but also forming confidence risk maps.

Unlike similar solutions, the constructed model is ML-oriented. In other words, the prediction of risk level is built in a spatial-temporal statement on a railroad network graph taking into account data received from MAAQMS. The adequacy of the model was confirmed by achieving the area under the ROC curve (AUC = 0.990) and the PR analysis indicator (AP = 0.940)

Author Biographies

Olena Kryvoruchko, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Computer Systems, Networks and Cybersecurity

Maira Shalabayeva, Kazakh University Ways of Communications

PhD Student

Department of Communication and Monitoring Systems

Svitlana Tsiutsiura, State University of Trade and Economics

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Software Engineering and Cybersecurity

Mykola Tsiutsiura, State University of Trade and Economics

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Software Engineering and Cybersecurity

Valentyna Makoiedova, State University of Trade and Economics

PhD

Department of Digital Economy and System Analysis

Valerii Lakhno, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Computer Systems, Networks and Cybersecurity

Oleksandr Alieksieienko, National Transport University

PhD

Department of Transport Infrastructure System Design and Geodesy

Yaroslav Shestak, State University of Trade and Economics

PhD

Department of Software Engineering and Cybersecurity

Alina Korchevska, National Transport University; State Enterprise "National Institute for Development Infrastructure"

Senior Lecturer

Department of Transport Systems and Road Safety

Junior Researcher

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Construction of a simulation model for monitoring and managing environmental risks in railroad transportation accidents involving hazardous goods

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Published

2025-12-29

How to Cite

Kryvoruchko, O., Shalabayeva, M., Tsiutsiura, S., Tsiutsiura, M., Makoiedova, V., Lakhno, V., Alieksieienko, O., Shestak, Y., & Korchevska, A. (2025). Construction of a simulation model for monitoring and managing environmental risks in railroad transportation accidents involving hazardous goods. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 6(3 (138), 35–47. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2025.344643

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 3 (138) (2025): Control processes

Section

Control processes

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Copyright (c) 2025 Olena Kryvoruchko, Maira Shalabayeva, Svitlana Tsiutsiura, Mykola Tsiutsiura, Valentyna Makoiedova, Valerii Lakhno, Oleksandr Alieksieienko, Yaroslav Shestak, Alina Korchevska

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