Development of an analytical estimation method of the fault risk in the power system
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2015.47290Keywords:
risk, failure probability, rapid assessment, dynamic stability, power system, power line. ReferencesAbstract
Modern risk-oriented management of electric power system requires the definition of risk as an integral operation index that allows to reliably characterize the power system state. Assessment of the power system state is performed under a significant number of technical and operational uncertainties.
The approach to the analytical determination of the fault risk in the electric power system without regular probabilistic and statistical modeling using the Monte Carlo method was proposed. The developed risk assessment method lies in determining, based on a one-time probabilistic-statistical modeling, analytical expression, which allows to reliably perform a rapid assessment of the fault risk in the power system based only on the equipment state characteristics and power system prefault parameters.
Based on the developed method, the algorithm of the rapid risk assessment of dynamic instability in the power system was determined. The proposed algorithm allows to obtain an analytical expression for the fault risk in the power system as a polynomial dependence. In this interpretation, the risk is a function of the technical state of the power system elements and prefault conditions. Using the developed algorithm, risk assessment of dynamic instability in the test circuit of the power system was carried out.
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Copyright (c) 2015 Володимир Валерійович Літвінов, Микола Володимирович Костерєв
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