THERMODYNAMIC APPROACH TO THE DETERMINATION OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION RISKS

Authors

  • Владимир Федорович Литвинов Odessa National Polytechnic University Ave. Shevchenko, 1, Odessa, Odessa region, 65000, Ukraine

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2013.6609

Keywords:

project, risk, reliability, estimation, entropy, stability, interval, kriteria

Abstract

To decrease the losses due to the miscalculations of project risks estimations it is proposed to use the method of entropy maximum. It will give us the calculated numerical estimation instead of  an expert estimation which have an stated numerical value. We use the analogy method to move  the results known from thermodynamic task to one local problem in the project management. And we have describe the way how to use this method to obtain estimations of different risks in the probability form. We have shown that criteria obtained is not auto monotonous but there are some ways to increase the strength of estimation if we have an additional information about estimation statistics.

Author Biography

Владимир Федорович Литвинов, Odessa National Polytechnic University Ave. Shevchenko, 1, Odessa, Odessa region, 65000

Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences

Life Safety Systems Management Chair

 

References

  1. Сороко, Л. М. Принцип максимума энтропии и его применение для решения обратных задач [Текст] / Л. М. Сороко // Физика элементарных частиц и атомного ядра(ЭЧАЯ) М, 1981. - Т.12 в.3. - С.754-823.
  2. Смоляк, С. А. Учет факторов риска и неопределенности в инвестиционном проектировании [Текст] / С. А. Смоляк // Аудит и финансовый анализ, 1999. - №3. - URL:http://www.cfin.ru/press/afa/1999-3/05-6.shtml.

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Published

2013-02-10

How to Cite

Литвинов, В. Ф. (2013). THERMODYNAMIC APPROACH TO THE DETERMINATION OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION RISKS. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 1(10(61), 180–182. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2013.6609

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 10(61) (2013): Integrated strategic management, project management and software development companies and territories

Section

Integrated strategic management, project management and software development companies and territorial

License

Copyright (c) 2014 Владимир Федорович Литвинов

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