FORECASTING PROJECT METRICS BASED ON COGNITIVE MODELS, VIEWS A BIPARTITE GRAPH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2013.6754Keywords:
project planning, cognitive modeling, underdetermined computational modelsAbstract
All existing methods of planning and monitoring of the project progress include the presence of clear analytical relationship between the project parameters. Due to the limited information in the absence of analytical relationships between the factors a problem of forecasting the parameters of the project in the course of time have been appeared. The concept of a prediction model based on the integration of the project mechanisms of cognitive modeling and underdetermined computational models as the most effective way of solving constraint satisfaction problems has been suggested. The four conditions of the possibility of integration models: equivalence of sets of factors, included a sets of functional dependencies, extensibility digraph to computational network and portability of computing mechanisms of cognitive modeling on the base of underdetermined computational models have been analyzed. It is shown that it is not only retains all the advantages of the first, but also eliminates a number of shortcomings. The feasibility of the proposed mechanism for solving the problems of project management has been given. The further steps on integration of cognitive modeling and underdetermined computational models have been determined.
References
- Мазур, И. И. Управление проектами: Учебное пособие [Текст] / И. И. Мазур, В. Д. Шапиро, Н. Г. Ольдерогге. – 2-е изд. – М.: Омега-Л, 2004. – 664 с.
- A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide), Fouth Edition [Text] / – Newtown Sguare: PMI, 2008. – 241 p.
- Возный, А. М. Прогнозирование показателей проектов во времени с использованием механизмов когнитивного моделирования [Текст] / А.М. Возный, Ю.Е. Шамарин // Вісник Національного університету кораблебудування : електрон. серійне наук. вид. комбінов. використ. на DVD-ROM / НУК ; відп. ред. С.С. Рижков. – Миколаїв. – 2011. – № 5.
- Возный, А. М. Совершенствование системы управления воспроизводимыми ресурсами судостроительного производства [Текст] / А. М. Возный // Управління проектами та розвиток виробництва. Зб. наук. праць. – Луганск, 2005. - № 1(13). – С. 145-153.
- Телерман, В. В. Недоопределенные модели: формализация подхода и перспективы развития [Текст] / В.В. Телерман, Д.М. Ушаков // Проблемы представления и обработки не полностью определенных знаний: сб. трудов РосНИИ Искусственного Интеллекта. - Москва – Новосибирск, 1996. –С. 7 – 30.
- Кулинич, А. А. Методология когнитивного моделирования сложных плохо определенных ситуаций [Текст] / А. А. Кулинич // Вторая международная конференция по проблемам управления (17-19 июня 2003 г., ИПУ РАН, г. Москва). М.: ИПУ РАН, 2003. – т. 2. – С. 219-226.
- Siau, K. Improving the quality of conceptual modeling using cognitive mapping techniques [Текст] / K. Siau, X. Tan // Data & Knowledge Engineering. – 2005. – T. 55, №3. – C. 343-365.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2014 Александр Михайлович Возный, Константин Викторович Кошкин, Наталья Ромуальдовна Кнырик
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The consolidation and conditions for the transfer of copyright (identification of authorship) is carried out in the License Agreement. In particular, the authors reserve the right to the authorship of their manuscript and transfer the first publication of this work to the journal under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license. At the same time, they have the right to conclude on their own additional agreements concerning the non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form in which it was published by this journal, but provided that the link to the first publication of the article in this journal is preserved.
A license agreement is a document in which the author warrants that he/she owns all copyright for the work (manuscript, article, etc.).
The authors, signing the License Agreement with TECHNOLOGY CENTER PC, have all rights to the further use of their work, provided that they link to our edition in which the work was published.
According to the terms of the License Agreement, the Publisher TECHNOLOGY CENTER PC does not take away your copyrights and receives permission from the authors to use and dissemination of the publication through the world's scientific resources (own electronic resources, scientometric databases, repositories, libraries, etc.).
In the absence of a signed License Agreement or in the absence of this agreement of identifiers allowing to identify the identity of the author, the editors have no right to work with the manuscript.
It is important to remember that there is another type of agreement between authors and publishers – when copyright is transferred from the authors to the publisher. In this case, the authors lose ownership of their work and may not use it in any way.