DOI: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.108936

Modeling of the enterprise functioning stability using the automatic control theory apparatus

Lidiya Guryanova, Ihor Nikolaiev, Ruslana Zhovnovach, Stanislav Milevskiy, Olha Ivakhnenko, Oksana Panasenko, Svitlana Prokopovych, Liubov Chagovets, Dmytro Vasylenko, Olga Rudachenko

Abstract


Despite a large number of diverse methods and approaches to studying the enterprise stability, forecasting of stable development in the Ukrainian economy did not yield sufficiently precise results. Therefore, the main purpose of the study was to develop a complex of economic and mathematical models for estimating and analyzing the enterprise functioning stability in the dynamics, which will allow timely diagnosis of its instability and taking effective management decisions. The proposed complex of models is based on the logistic approach and the classical apparatus of the systems automatic control theory.

The structural model of the enterprise was developed, which resulted in its generalized transfer function in the market environment. The generalized transfer function is the basis of the construction of a simulation model for assessing the enterprise functioning stability. This approach allowed the use of algorithmic mathematical methods – the criteria of Hurwitz and Mikhailov to study the stability of the enterprise functioning in the dynamics. According to the performance indicators of the two enterprises, practically applying the models developed in the work, the research and analysis of the stability of their functioning were carried out. As a result, the appearance of the Mikhailov’s hodograph for a stable and unstable system is clearly demonstrated, and the stability margin is determined.

It is important that the obtained models and results, with the appropriate adaptation, can be extrapolated to study the stability of the production and sales enterprise functioning in different economic sectors of different countries of the world. The prospect of further research is seen in the development of an information and analytical system that uses the models for assessing and analyzing the enterprise functioning stability and allows you to change the structural model quickly, adjusting it to certain features of a particular enterprise. This will allow you to determine the level of stability for any investigated system operatively.


Keywords


functioning stability; structural model; simulation model; logistic approach; production and sales system; automatic control theory

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References


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GOST Style Citations


Klebanova, T. S. Model basis of early warning and localization of crises in economic systems of territories [Text] / T. S. Klebanova, L. S. Guryanova, I. K. Shevchenko // Actual problems of economics. – 2014. – Issue 3. – P. 269–278.

Hamaliy, V. F. Pytannia shchodo doslidzhennia stiykosti funktsionuvannia promyslovo-ekonomichnykh system [Text] / V. F. Hamaliy, I. V. Nikolaiev // Visnyk ekonomichnoi nauky Ukrainy. – 2008. – Issue 1 (13). – P. 14–17.

Modeli ocenki, analiza i prognozirovaniya social'no-ehkonomicheskih sistem [Text]: monografiya / T. S. Klebanova, N. A. Kizim (Eds.). – Kharkiv: FLP Pavlenko A.G., ID “INZHEHK”, 2010. – 280 p.

Shen, G. The Prediction Model of Financial Crisis Based on the Combination of Principle Component Analysis and Support Vector Machine [Text] / G. Shen, W. Jia // Open Journal of Social Sciences. – 2014. – Vol. 02, Issue 09. – P. 204–212. doi: 10.4236/jss.2014.29035 

Li, Z. Dynamic prediction of financial distress using Malmquist DEA [Text] / Z. Li, J. Crook, G. Andreeva // Expert Systems with Applications. – 2017. – Vol. 80. – P. 94–106. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2017.03.017 

Huang, C. A hybrid approach using two-level DEA for financial failure prediction and integrated SE-DEA and GCA for indicators selection [Text] / C. Huang, C. Dai, M. Guo // Applied Mathematics and Computation. – 2015. – Vol. 251. – P. 431–441. doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2014.11.077 

Li, S. A financial early warning logit model and its efficiency verification approach [Text] / S. Li, S. Wang // Knowledge-Based Systems. – 2014. – Vol. 70. – P. 78–87. doi: 10.1016/j.knosys.2014.03.017 

Ko, Y.-C. An evidential analysis of Altman Z -score for financial predictions: Case study on solar energy companies [Text] / Y.-C. Ko, H. Fujita, T. Li // Applied Soft Computing. – 2017. – Vol. 52. – P. 748–759. doi: 10.1016/j.asoc.2016.09.050 

Tyshchenko, O. M. Modeliuvannia otsinky ta prohnozuvannia finansovoi stiykosti pidpryiemstva [Text] / O. M. Tyshchenko, L. O. Norik // Problemy ekonomiky ta upravlinnia. – 2009. – Issue 640. – P. 406–415. – Available at: http://vlp.com.ua/files/59_2.pdf

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Kropyvnytska, V. Development of a set of methods for preforecasting fractal time series analysis to determine the level of persistence [Text] / V. Kropyvnytska, L. Kopystynskyy, G. Sementsov // Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies. – 2017. – Vol. 3, Issue 4 (87). – P. 10–17. doi: 10.15587/1729-4061.2017.104425 

Andreeski, C. J. Comparative analysis of bifurcation time series [Text] / C. J. Andreeski, P. M. Vasant // Biomedical Soft Computing and Human Sciences. – 2008. – Vol. 13, Issue 1. – P. 45–52.

Daradkeh, Y. Forecasting the Cyclical Dynamics of the Development Territories: Conceptual Approaches, Models, Experiments [Text] / Y. Daradkeh, L. Guryanova, T. Klebanova, S. Kavun // European Journal of Scientific Research. – 2012. – Vol. 74, Issue 1. – P. 5–20.

Matviychuk, A. V. Modeliuvannia finansovoi stiykosti pidpryiemstv iz zastosuvanniam teoriy nechitkoi lohiky, neironnykh merezh i dyskryminatnoho analizu [Text] / A. V. Matviychuk // Visnyk NAN Ukrainy. – 2010. – Issue 9. – P. 24–46.

Matviychuk, A. V. Bankruptcy Prediction in Transformational Economy: Discriminant and Fuzzy Logic Approaches [Text] / A. V. Matviychuk // Fuzzy Economic Review. – 2010. – Vol. 15, Issue 1. – P. 21–38.

Bahia, I. S. H. Using Artificial Neural Network Modeling in Forecasting Revenue: Case Study in National Insurance Company/Iraq [Text] / I. S. H. Bahia // International Journal of Intelligence Science. – 2013. – Vol. 03, Issue 03. – P. 136–143. doi: 10.4236/ijis.2013.33015 

Fernandez-Gamez, M. A. Corporate reputation and market value: Evidence with generalized regression neural networks [Text] / M. A. Fernandez-Gamez, A. M. Gil-Corral, F. Galan-Valdivieso // Expert Systems with Applications. – 2016. – Vol. 46. – P. 69–76. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2015.10.028 

Hafezi, R. A bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) for stock price prediction: Case study of DAX stock price [Text] / R. Hafezi, J. Shahrabi, E. Hadavandi // Applied Soft Computing. – 2015. – Vol. 29. – P. 196–210. doi: 10.1016/j.asoc.2014.12.028 

Buyukozkan, G. Assessment of lean manufacturing effect on business performance using Bayesian Belief Networks [Text] / G. Buyukozkan, G. Kayakutlu, I. S. Karakadilar // Expert Systems with Applications. – 2015. – Vol. 42, Issue 19. – P. 6539–6551. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2015.04.016 

Karpec, O. S. Modeli ocenki finansovoy ustoychivosti predpriyatiya: kognitivniy podhod [Text] / O. S. Karpec, I. M. Chuyko, S. V. Milevskiy // Biznes-Inform. – 2012. – Issue 3. – P. 54–58.

Tkachev, A. N. Imitacionnoe modelirovanie finansovo-hozyaystvennoy i proizvodstvennoy deyatel'nosti predpriyatiy metodami sistemnoy dinamiki [Text] / A. N. Tkachev, M. V. Bagdasarova // Sovremennye problemy nauki i obrazovaniya. – 2014. – Issue 5. – Available at: https://www.science-education.ru/ru/article/view?id=14800

Brumnik, R. Simulation of Territorial Development Based on Fiscal Policy Tools [Text] / R. Brumnik, T. Klebanova, L. Guryanova, S. Kavun, O. Trydid // Mathematical Problems in Engineering. – 2014. – Vol. 2014. – P. 1–14. doi: 10.1155/2014/843976 

Demare, T. Modeling logistic systems with an agent-based model and dynamic graphs [Text] / T. Demare, C. Bertelle, A. Dutot, L. Leveque // Journal of Transport Geography. – 2017. – Vol. 62. – P. 51–65. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.04.007 

Kononova, K. Evolutionary Processes in Economics: Multi-Agent Model of Macrogenerations Dynamics [Text] / K. Kononova, M. Lopez-Sanchez // Artificial Intelligence Research and Development: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference of the Catalan Association for Artificial Intelligence. – IOS Press, The Netherlands, 2013. – Vol. 256. – P. 311–315.

Hamaliy, V. F. Kontseptualnyi pidkhid do otsinky orhanizatsiyno-ekonomichnoi stiikosti pidpryiemstv [Text] / V. F. Hamaliy, I. V. Nikolaiev // Modeli upravleniya v rynochnoy ehkonomike. – 2009. – P. 116–124.

Silske, lisove ta rybne hospodarstvo: statystychna informatsiya [Electronic resource]. – Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. – Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua

Klebanova, T. S. Modeli funktsionuvannia ta rozvytku pidpryiemstv ahropromyslovoho kompleksu [Text]: monohrafiya / T. S. Klebanova, I. V. Nikolaiev, S. O. Khailuk. – Kharkiv: FOP Liburkina L. M.; VD “INZhEK”, 2010. – 232 p.







Copyright (c) 2017 Lidiya Guryanova, Ihor Nikolaiev, Ruslana Zhovnovach, Stanislav Milevskiy, Olha Ivakhnenko, Oksana Panasenko, Svitlana Prokopovych, Liubov Chagovets, Dmytro Vasylenko, Olga Rudachenko

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ISSN (print) 1729-3774, ISSN (on-line) 1729-4061