Development of estimation and forecasting method in intelligent decision support systems

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.229160

Keywords:

decision support systems, artificial neural networks, state forecasting, training

Abstract

The method of estimation and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is developed. The essence of the proposed method is the ability to analyze the current state of the object under analysis and the possibility of short-term forecasting of the object state. The possibility of objective and complete analysis is achieved through the use of improved fuzzy temporal models of the object state, an improved procedure for forecasting the object state and an improved procedure for training evolving artificial neural networks. The concepts of a fuzzy cognitive model, in contrast to the known fuzzy cognitive models, are connected by subsets of fuzzy influence degrees, arranged in chronological order, taking into account the time lags of the corresponding components of the multidimensional time series. This method is based on fuzzy temporal models and evolving artificial neural networks. The peculiarity of this method is the ability to take into account the type of a priori uncertainty about the state of the analyzed object (full awareness of the object state, partial awareness of the object state and complete uncertainty about the object state). The ability to clarify information about the state of the monitored object is achieved through the use of an advanced training procedure. It consists in training the synaptic weights of the artificial neural network, the type and parameters of the membership function, as well as the architecture of individual elements and the architecture of the artificial neural network as a whole. The object state forecasting procedure allows conducting multidimensional analysis, consideration and indirect influence of all components of a multidimensional time series with different time shifts relative to each other under uncertainty.

Author Biographies

Іgor Romanenko, Central Scientifically-Research Institute of Arming and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Leading Researcher

Scientific Research Department

Andrii Golovanov, National Defence University of Ukraine named after Ivan Cherniakhovskyi

PhD, Associate Professor, Head

Department of Operational Art

Vitalii Khoma, National Defence University of Ukraine named after Ivan Cherniakhovskyi

PhD, Associate Professor, Head

Scientific and Methodological Center of Scientific, Scientific and Technical Activities Organization

Andrii Shyshatskyi, Central Scientifically-Research Institute of Arming and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

PhD, Senior Researcher

Research Department of Electronic Warfare Development

Yevhen Demchenko, Central Scientifically-Research Institute of Arming and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

PhD, Head of Research Department

Research Department of Scientific and Methodological Support for the Development and Implementation of Programs for the Development of Weapons And Military Equipment and the State Defense Order

Research Department

Lyubov Shabanova-Kushnarenko , National Technical University “Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute”

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Intelligent Computer Systems

Tetiana Ivakhnenko, Central Scientifically-Research Institute of Arming and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

PhD, Leading Researcher

Research Department of Development of Anti-Aircraft Missile Systems and Complexes

Oleksandr Prokopenko, National Defence University of Ukraine named after Ivan Cherniakhovskyi

Adjunct

Center of Military and Strategic Studies

Oleh Havaliukh, Naval Institute of the National University "Odessa Maritime Academy"

PhD

Department of Weapons

Dmitrо Stupak, Zhytomyr Military Institute named after S. P. Koroliov

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Electrical Engineering and Electronics

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Published

2021-04-30

How to Cite

Romanenko І., Golovanov, A., Khoma, V., Shyshatskyi, A., Demchenko, Y., Shabanova-Kushnarenko , L., Ivakhnenko, T., Prokopenko, O., Havaliukh, O., & Stupak, D. (2021). Development of estimation and forecasting method in intelligent decision support systems. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2(4 (110), 38–47. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.229160

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 4 (110) (2021): Mathematics and Cybernetics - applied aspects

Section

Mathematics and Cybernetics - applied aspects

License

Copyright (c) 2021 Іgor Romanenko, Andrii Golovanov, Vitalii Khoma, Andrii Shyshatskyi, Yevhen Demchenko, Lyubov Shabanova-Kushnarenko , Tetiana Ivakhnenko, Oleksandr Prokopenko, Oleh Havaliukh, Dmitrо Stupak

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