Experimental research of passenger trip route choice probability

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2014.23140

Keywords:

city passenger transport, passenger, travel line, alternative routes, probability, waiting time, regression model

Abstract

Solving a challenging task of designing or improving the system of public passenger transport is impossible without predicting the distribution of passenger traffic over sections of the route network. For comparison of alternative passenger routes, in addition to the parameters within the known function of routes attractiveness, it is proposed to use the initial and marginal probability of choice as static parameters and the actual waiting time of passenger vehicles at a bus stop as a dynamic parameter. The initial probability of choosing the trip route is the probability of choosing this route when the actual waiting time is equal to zero. The marginal probability of choosing the route is the probability of choosing the trip route in case of the deficit of total capacity opportunities for all alternative routes, which determines the distribution of passenger traffic on alternative routes in proportion to their transport possibilities. Experimental data were obtained by a questionnaire poll of a fixed group of respondents in April and May, 2012. The group included 50 students, 25 workers and 15 employees, who had a choice of three routes.

There were processed 1468 questionnaires. According to the results of experimental data processing, it was determined that the regression models have the feature of power functions. In addition, for routes whose initial probability is smaller than the marginal one, the probability of choosing this route when increasing the actual waiting time increases. Statistical processing of the results of the experiment showed that the initial probability of choosing the route depends on the function of the attractiveness of the route at a particular bus stop

Author Biographies

Николай Анатольевич Нефедов, Kharkiv national automobile and highway university 25, Petrovskogo st., Kharkiv, Uktaine

Doctor of Philisophy, Associated professor

Department of transport systems and logistics

Альберт Авуа Джуниор, Urban development consortium 104 Kwame Nkrumah avenue, P. O. Box GP 17186, Accra-Ghana

Director

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Published

2014-04-08

How to Cite

Нефедов, Н. А., & Авуа Джуниор, А. (2014). Experimental research of passenger trip route choice probability. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2(3(68), 40–44. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2014.23140

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 3(68) (2014): Control processes

Section

Control processes

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Copyright (c) 2014 Николай Анатольевич Нефедов, Альберт Авуа Джуниор

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