Improving a method for determining the maneuvering intensity of the executive element of a special-purpose system
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.242688Keywords:
forecasting method, maneuvering techniques, evacuation, survivability indicators, conflict eventAbstract
The purpose of improving a method is to devise a tool for resolving contradictions in the practice of conflict events related to increasing the survivability and effectiveness of participation in a conflict event. A method for forecasting the survivability indicators of a special-purpose system based on the method of analytical-stochastic modeling of a conflict event was chosen as the basis for improvement.
The improved method is intended to find a compromise between the need to increase the duration of participation in the conflict and minimize the time of being at risk of loss of ability to function.
The use of the improved method, unlike the existing ones, provides an assessment of the impact of maneuver on the effectiveness of the implementation of tasks and the survivability of SPS. The method implies justifying the techniques for the executive elements to maneuver in order to create favorable conditions and effectively perform tasks in a conflict event.
The method involves the procedure for the formation of initial data; determining the maneuvering intensity of executive elements; comparing the parameters for expedient (rational) and implemented maneuvering techniques; the generalization of the research results.
The accepted indicators of the effectiveness and survivability of a special-purpose system in a conflict event are the mathematical expectations of the number of destructive influences and the number of preserved executive elements as a function of the intensity of maneuvering. The criteria defined for assessing the maneuvering techniques are the greatest values of the increase in efficiency and survivability with the change in the intensity of maneuvering and taking the favorable position by an executive element in a conflict event.
The specified method has helped investigate the peculiarities of changing performance and survivability indicators dependent on the intensity of maneuvering and determine the criteria signs for selecting maneuvering techniques.
Based on the signs of informativeness and the nature of the mutual influence of the relevant indicators, the advantage of the method is 30 % while the objectivity of taking into consideration significant factors increases by 15 %.
Practice needs to predict the consequences of processes of conflicting nature on the grounds of the effectiveness and survivability of its participants
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