Modelling the expert’s preferences in decision-making under complete uncertainty
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2016.81306Keywords:
decision-making criteria, Hurwitz alpha-test, uncertainty, expert assessmentAbstract
The object of the research is the formalized problem of decision-making under conditions of complete uncertainty of the external environment, whereas the subject of the research is decision-making criteria. The aim is to ensure the effectiveness of managerial decisions by widening the spectrum of mathematical models of the criteria for their selection. The study considers classical and derivative criteria for decision-making under conditions of complete uncertainty. We have suggested a three-parameter mathematical model of the Hurwitz criterion, which, in contrast to the classical model, makes analytical use of the number of conditions of the external environment (the dimension/scope of the problem) and considers the extent of its influence on the decision-maker’s preferences in making decisions. The developed research instrument can be used in the procedures of a group or individual expert assessment of the efficiency of managerial decisions. The advantages of the proposed model include its ability to retain the form of the parameters’ interrelation, regardless of the correction of the initial hypotheses. The maximum effect of its use can occur during a multiple group or individual expert assessment, when the calibration of subjective preferences of an expert is particularly important.
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