Developing a system for the initiation of projects using a Markov chain
Keywords:project initiation, labor safety, degree of perfection, risk, assessment, Markov chains
We performed an analysis of the peculiarities and the generalization of assessing the degree of perfection in the production systems for the development of information-management system of the evaluation and initiation of projects using a Markov chain. A hypothesis was put forward and confirmed on that the degree of perfection of a production system can be represented by using a generalized indicator of system quality, which corresponds to the level of existing risk.
A model is proposed to assess the level of perfection of organizational-technical system, which includes four discrete states that correspond to the risk level ratings in the system: R1 – low risk, R2 – medium risk, R3 – high risk, R4 – extreme risk. A phenomenological reflection of the risk is a Markov chain. To construct a Markov model, we identified possible transitions in the risk degree assessments as the states of the production system. We devised a method for the identification of a Markov model by determining experimentally a matrix of transition probabilities based on data on questionnaire survey of the employees. It is proved that the size of minimal sample for a survey does not exceed 90 questionnaires for the assigned level of reliability рd=0.95 – in this case, error in the values of transition probabilities will not exceed 0.75 %.
A structure of the information-management system is proposed to control the process of project initiation, in which Markov model is an element of the control loop. The key process that creates preconditions for the practical implementation of information-management system is to determine transition probabilities in the Markov chain through the technique of questionnaire survey.
We examined practical aspects of the initiation and implementation of projects under conditions of acting enterprise. Results in the coordinates of estimates of the degree of risk during the year of the study demonstrated significant improvement in the evaluation by personnel of the activities that addressed labor safety. This improvement occurred due to a decreased share of workers who assessed risk as high (from 28.6 % to 22.2 %) and those who evaluated risk as extreme (from 22.4 % to 10.1 %). Judging by these data, the implemented projects can be considered successful.
- Tchiehe, D. N., Gauthier, F. (2017). Classification of risk acceptability and risk tolerability factors in occupational health and safety. Safety Science, 92, 138–147. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2016.10.003
- Moskaliuk, А. Yu., Gogunskii, V. D., Purich, V. M. (2016). Modeling the occupational health projects initiation using Markov chains. Technology audit and production reserves, 3 (2 (29)), 35–39. doi: 10.15587/2312-8372.2016.71834
- Lukianov, D. V., Kolesnikova, K. V., Dmitrenko, K. M. (2015). Priority projects of social orientation in a competitive environment. Management of development of complex systems, 23 (1), 62–68.
- Turner, J. P. (2007). Manual on project-oriented management. Moscow: Publishing Grebennikov House, 552.
- Stanovskii, O. L., Kolesnikova, K. V., Lebedeva, O. Yu., Ismail, H. (2015). Dynamic models in the method of project management. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 6 (3 (78)), 46–52. doi: 10.15587/1729-4061.2015.55665
- Van der Hoorn, B. (2015). Playing projects: Identifying flow in the “lived experience.” International Journal of Project Management, 33 (5), 1008–1021. doi: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.01.009
- Bushuyev, S., Jaroshenko, R. (2013). Proactive Program Management for Development National Finance System in Turbulence Environment. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 74, 61–70. doi: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.03.044
- Kolesnikova, K. V. (2014). The development of the theory of project management: project initiation study law. Management of development of complex systems, 17, 24–30. Available at: http://journals.uran.ua/urss/article/view/38688/35053
- Olekh, T. M., Kolesnikova, K. V. (2012). Matrix diagram and the "strong connection" indicator value in the projects. Electrical and Computer Systems, 7, 148–153.
- Gogunskii, V., Kolesnіkov, A., Kolesnіkova, K., Lukianov, D. (2016). "Lifelong learning" is a new paradigm of personnel training in enterprises. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 4 (2 (82)), 4–10. doi: 10.15587/1729-4061.2016.74905
- Chernega, Yu. S., Gogunsky, V. D. (2014). Development of activity model of labor safety engineer using Markov chains. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 5 (3 (71)), 39–43. doi: 10.15587/1729-4061.2014.28016
- Sherstyuk, O., Olekh, Т., Kolesnikova, K. (2016). The research on role differentiation as a method of forming the project team. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2 (3 (80)), 63–68. doi: 10.15587/1729-4061.2016.65681
- Bushuyev, S. D., Bushuyev, D. A., Rogozina, V. B., Mikhieieva, O. V. (2015). Convergence of knowledge in project management. 2015 IEEE 8th International Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications (IDAACS). doi: 10.1109/idaacs.2015.7341355
- Rudenko, S. V., Romanenko, M. V., Katunina, O. G., Kolesnikova, K. V. (2012). Development of the Markov model state changes in patients projects providing medical services. Management of development of complex systems, 12, 86–90. Available аt: http://journals.uran.ua/urss/article/view/41121/37470
- Yastrebenetsky, M. A., Vasilchenko, V. I., Vinogradskaya, S. V. et. al. (2004). Safety of nuclear power stations. Information and control systems. Kyiv: Publishing by Technscs, 472.
- Kolesnikova, K. V. (2013). Modeling of semistructured project management systems. Odes’kyi Politechnichnyi Universytet. Pratsi, 3 (42), 127–131. doi: 10.15276/opu.3.42.2013.25
- A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK guide) (2013). USA: Project Management Institute, 619.
- Rudenko, S. V., Ma, F., Glowatska, S. M., Kolesnikova, K. V. (2015). Implementation of the project management of the institution's image in the realities of China. High Technology in Machine build., Coll., 1 (25), 141–159.
- ISO 21500:2012. Guidance on project management (2012). ISO PC 236, # 113, 51.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2017 Viktor Gogunskii, Аndrew Bochkovskii, Andrii Moskaliuk, Olexii Kolesnikov, Serhii Babiuk
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The consolidation and conditions for the transfer of copyright (identification of authorship) is carried out in the License Agreement. In particular, the authors reserve the right to the authorship of their manuscript and transfer the first publication of this work to the journal under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license. At the same time, they have the right to conclude on their own additional agreements concerning the non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form in which it was published by this journal, but provided that the link to the first publication of the article in this journal is preserved.