Models of event risks from the point of view of system’s entropy
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/2225-6733.43.2021.19Keywords:
risk, events, risk formation, entropy, time scale, events scale, prediction, matrix, uncertainty, oriented graph of eventsAbstract
The work is devoted to the analysis of the possibilities of entropy mechanisms for factorization and control over risks in different systems. Proposed was the model for predicting event risks from the point of view of their energy and information supply. Such a risk assessment model allows you to get rid of the shortcoming’s characteristic of probabilistic and statistical methods of assessment. Risks are derived from some sequence of predicted events. The most acceptable indicators of such systems are energy and related thermodynamic regularities, as well as information that obeys similar laws. The model is based on dynamic characteristics of the event row in their time and entropy dependence that allow to predict and control real risks for particular systems within infinitely small time period of transition from chaotic uncertainty to a certain risk forming event. Indices of ordering-disordering of relative values of specific flows of entropy of events, taken into account on the basis of interpolation of the existing data bases for particular systems were taken as the criteria for risk generating events. Graphical interpretation of the model has the view of an oriented graph in multi-layer time parameters «event-cause-and-effect link» and its matrix representation. The presented technique is nothing more than a method of forecasting a certain and narrow in content class of phenomena, in particular, it refers to risks. The method of risk analysis, based on event series in a certain time interval close to the present time, allows you to assess the risk itself in the indicators of the system, understandable to the user and comparable with the indicators of other systems
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