Complexification methods of interval forecast estimates in the problems on short­term prediction

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2018.131939

Keywords:

short-term prediction, complexification of forecast estimates, decision support, interval analysis

Abstract

We solved the problem of improvement of methodological base for a decision support system in the process of short-term prediction of indicators of organizational-technical systems by developing new, and adapting existing, methods of complexification that are capable of taking into consideration the interval uncertainty of expert forecast estimates. The relevance of this problem stems from the need to take into consideration the uncertainty of primary information, predetermined by the manifestation of NON-factors. Analysis of the prerequisites and characteristics of formalization of uncertainty of primary data in the interval form was performed, the merits of interval analysis for solving the problems of complexification of interval forecast estimates were identified. Brief information about the basic mathematical apparatus was given: interval arithmetic and interval analysis. The methods of complexification of forecast estimates were improved through the synthesis of interval extensions, obtained in accordance with the paradigm of an interval analysis. We found in the course of the study that the introduction of the analytical preference function made it possible to synthesize the model of complexification in a general way, by aggregating the classes of hybrid and selective models in a single form for the generation of consolidated predictions based on interval forecast estimates. This allows obtaining complexification predictions based on the interval forecast estimates, thereby ensuring accuracy of the consolidated short-term prediction.

Critical analysis of the proposed methods was performed and recommendations on their practical application were developed. Recommendations for parametric setting of the analytic function of preferences were stated. Using the example, the adaptive properties of the interval model of complexification were shown.

Author Biographies

Yuri Romanenkov, N. E. Zhukovsky National Aerospace University "Kharkiv Aviation Institute" Chkalovа str., 17, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61070

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor

Department of management

Mariia Danova, N. E. Zhukovsky National Aerospace University "Kharkiv Aviation Institute" Chkalovа str., 17, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61070

PhD

Department of Software Engineering

Valentyna Kashcheyeva, N. E. Zhukovsky National Aerospace University "Kharkiv Aviation Institute" Chkalovа str., 17, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61070

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Finance

Oleg Bugaienko, N. E. Zhukovsky National Aerospace University "Kharkiv Aviation Institute" Chkalovа str., 17, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61070

PhD

Department of Chemistry, Ecology and Expert Technologies

Maksym Volk, Kharkiv National University of Radio Electronics Nauky avе., 14, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61166

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Electronic Computers

Maryna Karminska-Bielobrova, National Technical University "Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute" Kyrpychova str., 2, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61002

PhD

Department of production organization and personnel management

Olena Lobach, National Technical University "Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute" Kyrpychova str., 2, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61002

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Strategic Management

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Published

2018-05-23

How to Cite

Romanenkov, Y., Danova, M., Kashcheyeva, V., Bugaienko, O., Volk, M., Karminska-Bielobrova, M., & Lobach, O. (2018). Complexification methods of interval forecast estimates in the problems on short­term prediction. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 3(3 (93), 50–58. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2018.131939

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 3 (93) (2018): Control processes

Section

Control processes

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Copyright (c) 2018 Yuri Romanenkov, Mariia Danova, Valentyna Kashcheyeva, Oleg Bugaienko, Maksym Volk, Maryna Karminska-Bielobrova, Olena Lobach

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