Development of a computer model for evaluating the alternative options of an investment and construction project under conditions of uncertainty and risk
Keywords:quantitative analysis of risks, decision tree, investment project, decision making under conditions of risk
The paper reports the proposed method of quantitative analysis of risks in investment construction projects, which uses a probabilistic approach. The specific feature of this approach is a multistage evaluation process and complex accounting of indicators for decision making regarding the investment attractiveness of sites under conditions of uncertainty.
Based on this approach, an automated computer model for evaluating investment attractiveness of construction projects was developed. The indicators of investment efficiency and risks for various options of construction project implementation were explored, the alternative for a project development was selected and the best investment project was determined with the use of the computer model.
The reliability of the results was proved by studying the stability of decisions and by their errors.
The results were obtained in order to improve the efficiency of managerial decisions in the sector of investment in construction sector of economy. The developed computer model makes it possible, based on statistical data of demand for residential real estate, to perform a quantitative analysis of risks of investment in construction projects, to make a choice of a construction project by profitability and risk indicators, as well as by the criteria of decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty.
Numerical experiments with a computer model showed the need to invest in additional research in order to clarify the environmental parameters and to invest in the construction of a multi-storey building.The obtained results are relevant due to a high degree of turbulence in the environment in the construction sector, as well as in connection with the importance of attracting investments from the position of competitiveness. The computer model developed in the process of research is universal regarding the type of a residential real estate construction object
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