Development of a method for detecting dangerous states of polluted atmospheric air based on the current recurrence of the combined risk

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2020.213892

Keywords:

dangerous air pollution, checkpoint, current concentrations of pollutants, combined risk, recurrence plot

Abstract

A method has been developed to detect hazardous conditions of contaminated air in urban areas in real time for an arbitrary number of pollutants. The method is based on restoring the hidden dynamics of the combined risk of instantaneous action on the basis of the current measurements of the concentration of pollutants at the point of control. Other data on current conditions at the point of control are not used in the developed method. Therefore, the method, in contrast to known analogs, is universal and can be applied for arbitrary conditions and control points. At the same time, the restored dynamics of the level of the combined risk of instantaneous action makes it possible not only to identify dangerous conditions relating to contaminated atmospheric air but, on the basis of the current recurrence of combined risk levels, to assess the probability of detecting and predicting dangerous levels in the combined risk of instantaneous action in real time at the predefined point of control. Using the developed method at several control points in an arbitrary area would make it possible to determine the space-time distribution of the levels of the combined risk of instantaneous action of atmospheric pollution on the population within a territory. Experimental measurements of the concentration of formaldehyde, ammonia, and nitrogen dioxide in the atmosphere have been performed at the point of control within an industrial city with an air pollution level of 37 units on the AQC scale (USA). Based on the measurements, the method has been confirmed to be feasible. It was established that at the time of a credible dangerous event, the level of the combined risk of instantaneous action was approximately 10-3 with a single probability of this level. This level of the combined risk is about 105 times higher than the corresponding upper limit of permissible individual risk. It is shown that the maximum forecast time of the dangerous level of combined risk under the considered conditions does not exceed 18 hours

Author Biographies

Boris Pospelov, Scientific-Methodical Center of Educational Institutions in the Sphere of Civil Defence O. Honchara str., 55a, Kyiv, Ukraine, 01601

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Organization and Coordination of Research Activities

Volodymyr Kovrehin, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine Chernyshevska str., 94, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61023

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor

Research Center

Evgeniy Rybka, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine Chernyshevska str., 94, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61023

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Senior Researcher

Research Center

Olekcii Krainiukov, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University Svobody sq., 4, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61022

Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Associate Professor

Department of Environmental Safety and Environmental Education

Olena Petukhova, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine Chernyshevska str., 94, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61023

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Fire Prevention in Settlements

Tetiana Butenko, Scientific-Methodical Center of Educational Institutions in the Sphere of Civil Defence O. Honchara str., 55a, Kyiv, Ukraine, 01601

PhD, Senior Researcher

Department of Organization and Coordination of Research Activities

Pavlo Borodych, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine Chernyshevska str., 94, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61023

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Fire and Rescue Training

Ihor Morozov, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine Zakhysnykiv Ukrainy sq., 3, Kharkіv, Ukraine, 61001

PhD, Senior Researcher

Department of Research and Organization

Oleksii Horbov, Military Institute for Tank Troops National Technical University "Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute" Poltavskiy Shlyah st., 192, Kharkіv, Ukraine, 61098

PhD

Inna Hrachova, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine Zakhysnykiv Ukrainy sq., 3, Kharkіv, Ukraine, 61001

PhD

Department of Research and Organization

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Published

2020-10-31

How to Cite

Pospelov, B., Kovrehin, V., Rybka, E., Krainiukov, O., Petukhova, O., Butenko, T., Borodych, P., Morozov, I., Horbov, O., & Hrachova, I. (2020). Development of a method for detecting dangerous states of polluted atmospheric air based on the current recurrence of the combined risk. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 5(9 (107), 49–56. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2020.213892

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 9 (107) (2020): Information and controlling system

Section

Information and controlling system

License

Copyright (c) 2020 Boris Pospelov, Volodymyr Kovrehin, Evgeniy Rybka, Olekcii Krainiukov, Olena Petukhova, Tetiana Butenko, Pavlo Borodych, Ihor Morozov, Oleksii Horbov, Inna Hrachova

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