Short-term forecast of fire in the premises based on modification of the Brown’s zero-order model

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.238555

Keywords:

fire forecast, Brown’s model modification, ignition, current recurrence measure, state vector increment

Abstract

This paper reports the rationale for the modification of Brown’s zero-order model, which ensures increased accuracy of the short-term fire forecast based on the use of the current measure of recurrence in the increments of the state of the air environment in the premises. A special feature of the proposed model modification is that the a priori model of the dynamics of the level of the time series of the measure of the current recurrence of increments in the air environment states determined by the dangerous factors of the fire has been modified. In this case, it is proposed that the new a priori model should take into consideration additionally the value of the current increments of the level of the studied time series. That makes it possible to negligibly reduce errors of the short-term forecast of fire in the premises without significantly complicating Brown’s zero-order model while retaining all its implementing advantages. The provided accuracy of the forecast for one step in advance on the basis of a time series of measures of the current recurrence of increments of the state of the air environment, determined from the experimental data during the ignition of alcohol and timber in a laboratory chamber, has been investigated. The considered quantitative indicators of forecast accuracy are the absolute and average errors exponentially smoothed with a parameter of 0.4. It has been established that for the proposed modification the value of the average absolute error does not exceed 0.02 %. That means that an error of the short-term forecast of a fire in the premises based on the proposed modification is an order of magnitude less than that in the case of using known Brown’s model at the smoothing parameter from an unclustered set. The results from the ignition of alcohol and timber in the laboratory chamber, in general, indicate significant advantages of using the proposed modification of Brown’s zero-order model for a short-term forecast of a fire in the premises.

Author Biographies

Boris Pospelov, Scientific-methodical Center of Educational Institutions in the Sphere of Civil Defence

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Organization and Coordination of Research Activities

Evgenіy Rybka, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Senior Researcher

Research Center

Olekcii Krainiukov, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University

Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Associate Professor

Department of Environmental Safety and Environmental Education

Oleksandr Yashchenko, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Management and Organization in the Field of Civil Protection

Yuliia Bezuhla, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Prevention Activities and Monitoring

Serhii Bielai, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine

Doctor of Science in Public Administration, Professor

Research Center

Eduard Kochanov, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University

PhD

Department of Monitoring and Nature Management

Svitlana Hryshko, Bogdan Khmelnitsky Melitopol State Pedagogical University

PhD

Department of Physical Geography and Geology

Eduard Poltavski, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine

PhD

Department of Armored Vehicles

Oleksandr Nepsha, Bogdan Khmelnitsky Melitopol State Pedagogical University

Department of Physical Geography and Geology

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Published

2021-08-30

How to Cite

Pospelov, B., Rybka, E., Krainiukov, O., Yashchenko, O., Bezuhla, Y., Bielai, S., Kochanov, E., Hryshko, S., Poltavski, E., & Nepsha, O. (2021). Short-term forecast of fire in the premises based on modification of the Brown’s zero-order model . Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 4(10(112), 52–58. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.238555

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 10(112) (2021): Ecology

Section

Ecology

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Copyright (c) 2021 Boris Pospelov, Evgenіy Rybka, Olekcii Krainiukov, Oleksandr Yashchenko, Yuliia Bezuhla, Serhii Bielai, Eduard Kochanov, Svitlana Hryshko, Eduard Poltavski, Oleksandr Nepsha

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