Materials science and forecasting approach to selecting a pressured water reactor vessel
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2014.26264Keywords:
materials science-forecasting approach, reactor vessel, information technology, time seriesAbstract
Currently, more than thirty nuclear power plants (NPP) are designed in the world. In connection with the developing crisis in the global economy, during implementation of a specific NPP construction project, all other things being equal, the economic component appears. Major capital expenditures fall on the reactor vessel.
The paper proposes materials science-forecasting approach to selecting a pressurized water reactor vessel, which lies in forecasting the cost of the components that make up hull plates, represented in the form of time series and, based on them, determining the forecasted cost of the reactor vessel, performing the analysis, formulating conclusions and recommendations.
The information technology for forecasting time series with the risk assessment, which ensures the implementation of the proposed materials science-forecasting approach is developed. Information technology was software-implemented and tested on the example of solving the problem of substantiating the selection of pressurized water reactor vessel based on forecasting the cost of the major components of hull plates, represented in the form of time series for 2017–2022. Forecasting error is 12.94 %, which is by 12 % better than the traditional approach, forecasting risk is14.5 %.
It is shown that in selecting a new reactor plant for Ukraine for the forecast period, the pressurized water reactor vessel, made of steel A 533GR B 1989 is the most promising in terms of cost indexes.References
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