Determining the deterrence forces composition to prevent the unleashing of enemy aggression based on the principles of system analysis
Keywords:armed aggression, composition of deterrence forces, systematic approach, taxonomy method
The task to determine the composition of forces to deter the enemy from starting aggression, that is, to prevent the hot phase of a military conflict, refers to poorly structured problems in the presence of significant uncertainty. This leads to the application of the methodology of system analysis in solving the task. The set of deterrence forces to defeat the enemy is considered as a complex military system, which is the object of this study.
To determine the composition of the enemy's deterrence forces from unleashing armed aggression, this paper reports a devised methodology. The procedure criterion is the effectiveness of deterrence, which is determined by the required ratio of the combat potentials of the aviation of the opposing sides at the end of hostilities.
According to the methodology of system analysis, the procedure is based on the formation of options for the composition of enemy forces and the composition of deterrence forces, assessing the effectiveness of their use during hostilities.
The effectiveness of the use of forces of opposing parties is assessed by using the method of iterations and methods of queuing theory.
Based on the results of the effectiveness assessment, the selection of options for the composition of the deterrence forces is carried out, for which the condition for ensuring the necessary ratio of the combat potentials of the aviation of the parties at the end of hostilities is met. The rational version of the composition of the deterrence forces from those selected is determined by using the taxonomy method, which has made it possible to solve the problem under study. The rational option determines the combat potentials of the components of the deterrence forces, which correspond to the number of units in their composition.
The above methodology should be used by state and military authorities when planning the creation of enemy deterrence forces against unleashing armed aggression.
The application of the procedure is shown in an illustrative example
- Bonin, A. S. (2014). Metodika obosnovaniya neobkhodimogo sostava aviatsionnoy gruppirovki na strategicheskom napravlenii v operatsiyakh nachal'nogo perioda voyny. Vestnik Akademii voennykh nauk, 3 (48), 39–42.
- Laneckij, B. N., Lukyanchuk, V. V., Vasilyev, V. A., Koval, I. V. (2012). Development of research on methodological preliminary rationale required quantitative and qualitative composition of the anti-aircraft missile armed group antiaircraft missile troops. Nauka i tekhnika Povitrianykh Syl Zbroinykh Syl Ukrainy, 3, 58–60. Available at: http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/Nitps_2012_3_15
- Zahorka, O., Zahorka, I., Polishchuk, S. (2020). Justification of the Optimal Composition of the Air Defense Troops Grouping. Advances in Military Technology, 15 (1), 55–65. doi: https://doi.org/10.3849/aimt.01303
- Ryan, A. J. (2011). Military Applications of Complex Systems. Philosophy of Complex Systems, 723–780. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-444-52076-0.50024-9
- Butvin, B. L., Kryvosheev, V. M. (2008). Ratsionalnyi vybir variantu skladnoi tekhnichnoi systemy u bahatokryterialniy postanovtsi zadachi. Suchasni informatsiyni tekhnolohiyi u sferi bezpeky ta oborony, 3 (3), 10–16.
- Ostankov, V. I., Kazari, P. S. (2012). Metodika sravnitel'noy otsenki boevykh potentsialov voyskovykh formirovaniy i kachestvennogo sootnosheniya sil storon v operatsiyakh. Voennaya mysl', 11, 47–57.
- Brauers, W. K., Zavadskas, E. K. (2009). Robustness of the multi‐objective moora method with a test for the facilities sector. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 15 (2), 325–375. doi: https://doi.org/10.3846/1392-8619.2009.15.352-375
- Baležentis, A., Baležentis, T., Brauers, W. K. M. (2012). MULTIMOORA-FG: A Multi-Objective Decision Making Method for Linguistic Reasoning with an Application to Personnel Selection. Informatica, 23 (2), 173–190. doi: https://doi.org/10.15388/informatica.2012.355
- Kundakcı, N. (2018). An integrated method using MACBETH and EDAS methods for evaluating steam boiler alternatives. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 26 (1-2), 27–34. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/mcda.1656
- Zahorka, O., Shchipanskyi, P., Pavlikovskyi, A., Oksiiuk, O., Vialkova, V. (2019). Development of methodical provisions regarding the substantiation of the combat structure of forces for activities in the airspace. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2 (3 (98)), 6–15. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2019.163082
- Zahorka, А., Polishuk, S. (2021). Substantiation of the combat composition of the enemy's deterrent forces in crisis situations: methodological provisions. Zbirnyk Naukovykh Prats Tsentru Voienno-Stratehichnykh Doslidzhen NUOU Imeni Ivana Cherniakhovskoho, 3 (73), 22–32. doi: https://doi.org/10.33099/2304-2745/2021-3-73/22-32
- Rudenko, A. V. (1998). O kriteriyakh dostizheniya tseley vozdushnykh operatsiy i operatsiy obedineniy VVS. Voennaya mysl', 2, 46–52.
- Barabaschuk, V. I., Kredentser, B. P., Miroshnichenko, V. I.; Kredentser, B. P. (Ed.) (1984). Planirovanie eksperimenta v tekhnike. Kyiv: Tekhnika, 200.
- Tomashev, V. N. (2006). O sovershenstvovanii metodov otsenki boevykh vozmozhnostey voysk. Nauka i voennaya bezopasnost', 2, 18–22.
- Zahorka, O. M., Pavlikovskyi, A. K., Koretskyi, A. A., Kyrychenko, S. O., Zahorka, I. O. (2020). Teoretychni osnovy upravlinnia uhrupovanniam viysk (syl) u suchasnykh umovakh zbroinoi borotby. Kyiv: NUOU im. Ivana Cherniakhovskoho, 248.
- Shuenkin, V. A., Donchenko, V. S. (1992). Prikladnye modeli teorii massovogo obsluzhivaniya. Kyiv: NMK VO, 398.
- Saati, T., Kerns, K. (1991). Analiticheskoe planirovanie: organizatsiya sistem. Moscow: Radio i svyaz', 224.
- Plyuta, V. (1989). Sravnitel'niy mnogomernyy analiz v ekonometricheskom modelirovanii. Moscow: Finansy i statistika, 176.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2023 Mykhailo Koval, Oleksii Zahorka, Pavlo Shchypanskyi, Anatolii Pavlikovskyi, Andrii Koretskyi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The consolidation and conditions for the transfer of copyright (identification of authorship) is carried out in the License Agreement. In particular, the authors reserve the right to the authorship of their manuscript and transfer the first publication of this work to the journal under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license. At the same time, they have the right to conclude on their own additional agreements concerning the non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form in which it was published by this journal, but provided that the link to the first publication of the article in this journal is preserved.
A license agreement is a document in which the author warrants that he/she owns all copyright for the work (manuscript, article, etc.).
The authors, signing the License Agreement with PC TECHNOLOGY CENTER, have all rights to the further use of their work, provided that they link to our edition in which the work was published.
According to the terms of the License Agreement, the Publisher PC TECHNOLOGY CENTER does not take away your copyrights and receives permission from the authors to use and dissemination of the publication through the world's scientific resources (own electronic resources, scientometric databases, repositories, libraries, etc.).
In the absence of a signed License Agreement or in the absence of this agreement of identifiers allowing to identify the identity of the author, the editors have no right to work with the manuscript.
It is important to remember that there is another type of agreement between authors and publishers – when copyright is transferred from the authors to the publisher. In this case, the authors lose ownership of their work and may not use it in any way.