Defining a rational locomotive maintenance system considering a cost-based risk acceptability threshold

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2026.362728

Keywords:

locomotive, risk-oriented maintenance strategy, dependent failures, value at risk

Abstract

This study examines a locomotive technical maintenance system, represented as a set of interconnected nodes with a predefined structure of dependent failures.

The task addressed is to determine a rational locomotive maintenance system in which the total costs for planned and unplanned repairs are minimal provided that the risk of failures does not exceed the limit level set by the "value at risk" criterion. A risk-oriented mathematical model for the construction of a rational maintenance system has been proposed, in which dependent failures are taken into account by "waves" of failures. An optimization problem has been stated to minimize the total costs for planned and unplanned repairs provided that the risk level is not exceeded.

To model dependent failures, a structure of node connections was constructed, which makes it possible to assess the risk of failure of nodes and the system as a whole, taking into account economic consequences.

Based on the results from modeling a set of maintenance strategies, a nonlinear nature of change in total costs with an increase in the permissible level of risk was revealed; a ranking of elements by the frequency of the need for repair impact was obtained. This is explained by the redistribution between planned and unplanned repairs when changing the adopted risk threshold. It is shown that taking into account dependent failures increases the cost estimate for the maintenance system compared to the independent failure model by 18–47% depending on the adopted risk threshold. A distinctive feature of the approach is the combination of the “value at risk” criterion with the consideration of dependent failures within a single strategy selection procedure, which provides a comparison of strategies on the “risk-cost” scale.

The results of the study could be used when planning the volume and frequency of maintenance and repair of a locomotive fleet. The practical application is to establish the correspondence between the accepted acceptable risk level and a technical maintenance and repair (TM&R) strategy

Author Biographies

Borys Bodnar, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Management and Operation of Rolling Stock

Oleksandr Ochkasov, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies

Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor

Department of Management and Operation of Rolling Stock

Tetiana Hryshechkina, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies

Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor

Department of Computer Information Technologies

Oleksandr Zhovnirenko, Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies

PhD Student

Department of Management and Operation of Rolling Stock

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Defining a rational locomotive maintenance system considering a cost-based risk acceptability threshold

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Published

2026-06-30

How to Cite

Bodnar, B., Ochkasov, O., Hryshechkina, T., & Zhovnirenko, O. (2026). Defining a rational locomotive maintenance system considering a cost-based risk acceptability threshold. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 3(3 (141), 65–75. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2026.362728

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 3 (141) (2026): Control processes

Section

Control processes

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Copyright (c) 2026 Borys Bodnar, Oleksandr Ochkasov, Tetiana Hryshechkina, Oleksandr Zhovnirenko

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