Multi-criteria optimization of heterogeneous UAV fleet composition under probabilistic counteraction from surrounding environment based on mathematical and simulation modeling
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2026.365567Keywords:
unmanned aerial vehicles, heterogeneous fleet, multi-criteria optimization, Monte Carlo methodAbstract
This study considers a heterogeneous fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), consisting of two types of vehicles – main and auxiliary, operating under conditions of probabilistic medium resistance. The task addressed is to rationalize the informed selection of ratio between the main and auxiliary UAVs, which predetermines the survivability of the system, the level of possible losses, as well total resource costs.
A two-criteria discrete mathematical statement of the problem has been proposed, which minimizes the most probable number of losses of main vehicles and the number of auxiliary UAVs. Considering a heterogeneous fleet of UAVs, the probability of losing any element in this fleet is different, especially given the various types of UAVs in it. This significantly complicates the possibility of predicting the integrity of the system over a certain period of its operation; therefore, a simulation model was built by using the Monte Carlo method. It reproduces the sequential nature of events, taking into account the change in the composition of elements after each probable loss. In its architecture, modules for generating random scenarios, modeling losses of fleet elements, and statistical processing of results can be distinguished.
To verify the model, an analytical distribution was performed for the base scenario, and a Pareto-optimal set of heterogeneous fleet configurations was constructed. The maximum discrepancy between the empirical and analytical distributions is 0.49% at N = 50,000 iterations. These results reflect the dependence on the reduction of losses for the main group of fleet elements and the number of auxiliary devices, which are considered cheaper and play the role of increasing stability for the system.
The results could prove useful for preliminary analysis when designing a heterogeneous UAV fleet with elements of different types, different functional purpose, and cost
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