Developing a logit model for the provision of the process of managing the conclusion of voyage chartering transactions
Keywords:logit model, chartering, voyage charter, success, evaluation, transaction, freight rate
A balance of interests between the parties and possible risks, linked to the set of conditions of a voyage charter, reflected in the offer, predetermines the success of concluding a freight transaction between a ship-owner and a charterer.
A mathematical basis for the formalization of the decision-making process regarding a transaction, based on the set of conditions, are the models of binary choice, the experience of using which in different areas of activity is analyzed.
A logit model was developed for evaluating the success of the conclusion of the voyage chartering transaction based on the example of a particular market segment. The logit model evaluates probability of concluding a voyage chartering transaction based on the set of values, which correspond to quantitative conditions of the offer (for example, demurrage, level of the freight rate, intensity of cargo operations, interval of time of vessel delivery). We established by empirical way a boundary value of the probability, obtained by the logit model, which predermines the existence of balance of interests between the parties and the possibility of the conclusion of transaction under the given conditions.
An empirical verification of the obtained logit model demonstrated the share of erroneous conclusions, which may be considered acceptable (less than 5 %), that predetermines its theoretical and practical significance.
We developed a procedure for the application of the logit model in the activity of freight brokers for analysis of information from the offers and preparation of the substantiated recommendations to the parties involved to reach the balance of interests under existing market conditions.
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Copyright (c) 2016 Svitlana Onyshсhenko, Yulіia Koskina, Iryna Savelieva
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