Assessment of accuracy of the methodology of transport resources distribution depending on entering data discretization level
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2013.9145Keywords:
Transport resources distribution, methodology, dynamic programming, discretization level, transport resourcesAbstract
The task of distribution of transport resources as a problem of dynamic programming is considered, and, Bellman's function is offered to search the optimum solution that results in analyzing a lot of indicators. Discretization level directly influences the final data accuracy. To estimate the offered solutions quality the indicators such as the degree of actual errors on profits and on transportation volume as well as the degree of relative error on profits and on transportation volume are used. The methodology to analyze the interrelation of recommendations accuracy and different indicators discretization under dynamic transport resources distribution is created. Practical realization of the developed methodology proves calculations accuracy dependence on discretization level in the problem of dynamic transport resources distribution. The value of discretization level is chosen respectively: one period (for the provided example is half a year), two periods (for the provided example is a quarter) and six periods (for the provided example is a month). At the same time the degree of an error is rather insignificant. So, the relative error on profit using an annual forecasting as opposed to monthly one makes 0.05 – 0.04 % of the total sum. The degree of a relative error on volume is much smaller and equal to 0.01-0.04%. It testifies there is no need to complicate forecasting process and it also gives proof of using the simplified procedure of forecast values search. In addition, the quarterly forecasting is proved not to be rationalReferences
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Copyright (c) 2014 Володимир Олексійович Вдовиченко, Наталія Володимирівна Потаман, Олександр Петрович Калініченко, Олексій Вікторович Павленко
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