Method of construction approximating curves for evaluation and prediction for level of flood waters

Authors

  • Оксана Ігорівна Клапоущак Ivano-Frankivsk National Tehnical University of Oil and Gas Karpatska str., 15, Ivano-Frankivsk, 76019, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2386-4106

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2014.22002

Keywords:

flood water level, meteorological data, approximating curves, statistical data, predicting

Abstract

The developed method for predicting the flood water level allows to analyze statistical data from meteorological stations (precipitation, humidity deficit and wind speed) to predict the water level in rivers during floods.

The method for constructing approximating curves was performed on the basis of statistical data on the Prut River level and meteorological data (precipitation amount, air humidity and wind speed) from meteorological stations in the cities of Yaremcha, Kolomyia and Chernivtsi during the flood waters from 24.07.08/03 to 25.07.08/15.

The obtained results and the proposed method will allow to predict flood waters, and the more data from meteorological stations the more accurate the weather forecast that will allow to reduce economic costs and avoid casualties during flood waters.

Currently, studies of the influence of one meteorological data on the other, and their impact on rising the water level in rivers using contingency factor are carried out.

Having revealed the correlation of data from meteorological stations and data on the water rise level, further studies will be directed at determining the model adequacy. However, the proposed model has confirmed the fact that the 100 m/house and more [18] cause catastrophic river water level rise, and also gives grounds to confirm the model adequacy.

Author Biography

Оксана Ігорівна Клапоущак, Ivano-Frankivsk National Tehnical University of Oil and Gas Karpatska str., 15, Ivano-Frankivsk, 76019

Department of Computer Tecnologies in Automatics and Control Systems

References

  1. Библюк Н. І. Небезпечні стихійні явища в Карпатах: причини виникнення та шляхи їх мінімізації. [Текст] : зб. наук. праць / Н. І. Библюк, І. П. Ковальчук, О. С. Мачуга // Лісівничої академії наук України / НЛТУ України, Лісівнича академія наук України. – 2009. – Вип. 6. – С. 105–119. – Режим доступу : http://www.nbuv.gov.ua/ujrn/Chem_biol/nplanu/2008_6/LAN_6_Bybluk.pdf.
  2. Паводок: в трех областях Украины затоплены дороги [Електронний ресурс] / КорреспонденТ.net. Офіційний сайт. – Режим доступу: http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/1059085.
  3. На Западе Украины начинается паводок. [Електронний ресурс] / КорреспонденТ.net. Офіційний сайт. – Режим доступу: http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/1195609-na-zapade-ukrainy-nachinaetsya-pavodok.
  4. В Китае сильные паводки отрезали от внешнего мира тысячи человек [Електронний ресурс] / Newsland. Офіційний сайт. – Режим доступу: http://newsland.com/news/detail/id/260308/.
  5. Cильное наводнение в китайской провинции Хунань [Електронний ресурс] / Euronews. Офіційний сайт. – Режим доступу: http://ru.euronews.com/2013/08/25/china-floods-reach-hunan-province/.
  6. Різдвяний паводок: Європа “пливе” у новий рік [Електронний ресурс] / Euronews. Офіційний сайт. – Режим доступу: http://ua.euronews.com/2013/12/27/bad-weather-puts-a-damper-on-christmas-in-south-of-uk/.
  7. Повінь в Німеччині може “влетіти” у € 12 млрд. [Електронний ресурс] / ТСН вражає. Офіційний сайт. – Режим доступу: https://tsn.ua/svit/povin-v-nimechchini-mozhe-vletiti-u-12-milyardiv-yevro-298046.html.
  8. WO2013063699, G08B 31/00 (2006.01), G01M 99/00 (2011.01), G06Q 40/08 (2012.01). System and method for predication flooding [Text] / Moss Ian; Tremblay Robert, Insurance bureau of Canada. – PCT/CA2012/050772; international filing 31.10.2012; publication 10.05.13.
  9. JP2002107462, G01W 1/10. Rainfall food forecasting system [Text] / Sadamichi Shigemi; Foundation of river & basin integrated communications Japan. –2000296115; application Date 31.10.2000; publication A 10.04.2002.
  10. CN102289570, G06F 19/00. Flood forecast method based on rainfall-runoff-flood routing calculation [Text] / Ran Qihua, Wang Zhenyu, He Zhiguo, Zhejiang University. – 102289570; application Date 23.07.2011; publication A 21.12.2011.
  11. US 2013/0116920 A1, G01 C 21/00 (2006.01). System, method and program product for flood aware travel routing [Text] / Victor Fernandes Cavalcante, Bruno Da Costa Flach, Maira Athanazio de Cerqueira Gatti, Ricardo Guimaraes Herrmann, Kiran Mantripragada, Marco Aurelio Stelmar Netto, Lucas Correia Villa Real, Paula Aida Sesini,. Cleidson Ronald Botelho De Souza, Bianca Zadrozny, International Business MachinesCorporation, Armonk, NY (US). – 13/290,334; application Date 07.11.2011; publication 03.05.2013.
  12. Пат. 2480825 Российская Федерация, G06N 3/02. Способ прогнозирования времени наступления и уровня паводков [Текст] / Варшанина Т. П., Плисенко О. А., Коробков В. Н.; заявитель и патентообладатель Федеральное государственное бюджетное образовательное учреждение высшего профессионального образования “Адыгейский государственный университет” (ФГБОУ ВПО “АГУ”). – № 2010140576/08; заявл. 04.10.2010; опубл. 10.04.2012, Бюл. № 10.
  13. Matei, Alexandra An ANN Based Flood Prediction System / Alexandra Matei // BULETINUL Universităţii Petrol. – Gaze din Ploieşti. – 2009. – Vol. LXI, № 3. – P. 353 – 358.
  14. Ward, R. A Geographical Perspective [Text] / R. C. Ward, C. Floods. – London etc – Macmillan, 1978. – 244 р.
  15. Скакун, С. В. Нейромережевий метод картографування повеней на основі супутникових зображень [Текст] / С. В. Скакун // Наукові праці ДонНТУ серія “Інформатика, кібернетика та обчислювальна техніка”. – 2001. – Вип. 10 (153). – С. 52–58.
  16. Гребінь, В. В. Оцінка можливості оперативного прогнозування дощових паводків на річках басейнів Прута та Сірету [Текст] / В. В. Гребінь, О. І. Лук’янець, І. І. Ткачук // Український гідрологічний журнал. – 2012. – № 10. – С. 164–175.
  17. Режим формування історичних паводків в українських Карпатах. TextReferat [Електронний ресурс] / Режим доступу: http:// ua.textreferat.com/referat-4484.html.
  18. Адаменко, О. М. Про причини та можливості попередження й зниження катастрофічних наслідків регіональних паводків у західному регіоні України [Текст] / О. М. Адаменко. – Природа Західного Полісся та прилеглих територій, 2009. – С. 9–16.
  19. Byblyuk, N. I., Kovalchuk, I. P., Machuha, O. S. (2009). Dangerous natural phenomena in the Carpathians: causes and ways to minimize them. Forestry Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.Lviv: National Forestry University of Ukraine. Lviv, 6, 105–119.
  20. Flooding: in three regions of Ukraine flooded road. Korrespondent. net. Available at: http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/1059085.
  21. In the West of Ukraine starts flood of Korrespondent.net. Korrespondent. net. Available at: http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/1195609-na-zapade-ukrainy-nachinaetsya-pavodok.
  22. In China, severe floods cut off from the outside world thousands of people Newsland.com. Available at: http://newsland.com/news/detail/id/260308.
  23. By strong floods in the Chinese province of Hunan. Euronews.com. Available at: http://ru.euronews.com/2013/08/25/china-floodsreach-hunan-province/.
  24. Christmas flood: Europe “floats” in the new year. Euronews.com. Available at: ua.euronews.com/2013/12/27/bad-weather-puts-adamperon-christmas-in-south-of-uk /.
  25. Flooding in Germany can “fly” in the € 12 billion. Available at: tsn. ua/svit/povin-v-nimechchini-mozhe-vletiti-u-12-milyardiv-yevro-298046.html.
  26. Moss, I., Tremblay, R. (2012). System and method for predication flooding, 2013. Insurance bureau of Canada.
  27. Shigemi, S. (2002). Rainfall food forecasting system. Foundation of river & basin integrated communications Japan.
  28. Qihua, R., Zhenyu W., Zhiguo, H. (2011). Flood forecast method based on rainfall-runoff-flood routing calculation. Zhejiang University. 11. Cavalcante, V. F., Flach, B. M., Gatti, H. C. (2013). System, method and program product for flood aware travel routing. International Business MachinesCorporation, Armonk, NY (US).
  29. Varshanina, T. P., Plisenko, O. A., Korobkov, V. N. (2012). A method for predicting the time of occurrence and level of flood. Federal State Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education “Adyghe State University” (“ASU”).
  30. Alexandra, M. (2009). An ANN Based Flood Prediction System, LXI (3), 353–358.
  31. Ward, R. C. (1978). Floods: A Geographical Perspective. London etc: Macmillan, 244.
  32. Skakyn, S. V. (2001). Neural network method for mapping floodfrom satellite imagery. Informatics, Cybernetics and Computer Science, 10 (153), 52–58.
  33. Grebin, V. V., Lukyanets, O. I., Tkachuk, I. I. (2012). Evaluate operational forecasting rain floods in the rivers Prut and Siret basin. Ukrainian Journal of hydrology, 10, 164–175.
  34. Regime of historical floods in the Ukrainian Carpathians. Available at: http:// ua.textreferat.com/referat-4484.html.
  35. Adamenko, О. М. (2009). About the reasons and possibilities of preventing and reducing the disastrous effects of regional floods in western Ukraine. Nature Western Podlasie and surrounding areas, 9–16.

Downloads

Published

2014-04-09

How to Cite

Клапоущак, О. І. (2014). Method of construction approximating curves for evaluation and prediction for level of flood waters. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2(4(68), 50–54. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2014.22002

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 4(68) (2014): Mathematics and Cybernetics - applied aspects

Section

Mathematics and Cybernetics - applied aspects

License

Copyright (c) 2014 Оксана Ігорівна Клапоущак

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The consolidation and conditions for the transfer of copyright (identification of authorship) is carried out in the License Agreement. In particular, the authors reserve the right to the authorship of their manuscript and transfer the first publication of this work to the journal under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license. At the same time, they have the right to conclude on their own additional agreements concerning the non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form in which it was published by this journal, but provided that the link to the first publication of the article in this journal is preserved.

A license agreement is a document in which the author warrants that he/she owns all copyright for the work (manuscript, article, etc.).
The authors, signing the License Agreement with TECHNOLOGY CENTER PC, have all rights to the further use of their work, provided that they link to our edition in which the work was published.
According to the terms of the License Agreement, the Publisher TECHNOLOGY CENTER PC does not take away your copyrights and receives permission from the authors to use and dissemination of the publication through the world's scientific resources (own electronic resources, scientometric databases, repositories, libraries, etc.).
In the absence of a signed License Agreement or in the absence of this agreement of identifiers allowing to identify the identity of the author, the editors have no right to work with the manuscript.
It is important to remember that there is another type of agreement between authors and publishers – when copyright is transferred from the authors to the publisher. In this case, the authors lose ownership of their work and may not use it in any way.