Development of the method of operational forecasting of fire in the premises of objects under real conditions

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.226692

Keywords:

fire forecasting, indoor ignition, measure of recurrence, increment of states, air environment

Abstract

A method for operational forecasting of fires is proposed that enables the sequential implementation of five procedures. The method development is necessary to predict early fires in premises in order to take measures to prevent them from escalating into an uncontrolled combustion phase ‒ a fire. As a result of research, it was found that a short-term forecast of the recurrence of increments of the air conditions by one step, based on the current measure of recurrence, is an effective indicator of early fires in premises. At the same time, it was found that before the moment of ignition of the material, the state of the air environment is characterized by dynamic stability, which is described by an irregular and time-dependent random change in the recurrence of the states of the vector of current increments of the state of the air environment. The values of the indicated levels of recurrence of the state increments are determined by the probability levels of 0.67 and 0.1, respectively. The probability of recurrence of state increments of 0.67 is characteristic of a larger number of measured states. When the material is ignited, the dynamics of the probability of recurrence of state increments change abruptly. There is a transition from two to one level of recurrence, close to zero probability ‒ the loss of dynamic stability (in the region of count 250). Further dynamics are characterized by the appearance of separate random recurrent increments corresponding to the instability of the air environment in the premises. In the course of the experiment, it was found that the accuracy of predicting a fire by the proposed method ranges from 4.48 % to 12.79 %, which generally indicates its efficiency. The obtained data prove useful in the development of new systems that early warn of fire in premises, as well as in the modernization of existing systems and means of fire protection of premises

Author Biographies

Boris Pospelov, Scientific-methodical Center of Educational Institutions in the Sphere of Civil Defence

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Organization and Coordination of Research Activities

Vladimir Andronov, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Research Center

Evgenіy Rybka, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Senior Researcher

Research Center

Mikhail Samoilov, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

Adjunct

Research Center

Olekcii Krainiukov, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University

Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Associate Professor

Department of Ecological Safety and Environmental Education

Igor Biryukov, National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor

Department of Missile and Artillery Weapons

Tetiana Butenko, Scientific-methodical Center of Educational Institutions in the Sphere of Civil Defence

PhD, Senior Research

Department of Organization and Coordination of Research Activities

Yuliia Bezuhla, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Prevention Activities and Monitoring

Kostiantyn Karpets, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Ecology and Neoecology

Eduard Kochanov, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University

PhD

Department of Environmental Monitoring and Management

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Published

2021-04-30

How to Cite

Pospelov, B., Andronov, V., Rybka, E., Samoilov, M., Krainiukov, O., Biryukov, I., Butenko, T., Bezuhla, Y., Karpets, K., & Kochanov, E. (2021). Development of the method of operational forecasting of fire in the premises of objects under real conditions. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2(10 (110), 43–50. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.226692

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 10 (110) (2021): Ecology

Section

Ecology

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Copyright (c) 2021 Борис Борисович Поспєлов, Володимир Анатолійович Андронов, Євгеній Олексійович Рибка, Михайло Олександрович Самойлов, Олексій Миколайович Крайнюков, Ігор Юрійович Бірюков, Тетяна Юріївна Бутенко, Юлія Сергіївна Безугла, Костянтин Михайлович Карпець, Едуард Олексійович Кочанов

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