Development of a method for assessing forecast of social impact in regional communities

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.249313

Keywords:

socio-cyber-physical system, social networks, models of influence, rating of political parties, regional society

Abstract

The development of the social aspect of the world community is closely related to the expansion of the range of digital services in cyberspace. A special place in which social networks occupy. The world's leading states are conducting information operations in this environment to achieve geopolitical goals. Such processes are reflected in real social and political life. This makes it possible to influence not only the social groups of society, but also to ensure manipulation in political "games" in the conduct of hybrid wars.

The simultaneous interaction of social factors, influencing factors, the presence of communities in social networks forms a full-fledged socio-cyber-physical system capable of integrating real and virtual interactions to manage regional communities.

The article proposes a method for predicting the assessment of social mutual influence between “formal” and “informal” leaders and regional societies. The proposed models make it possible to form not only a forecast of the influence of agents, but also the interaction of various agents, taking into account their formal and informal influences, the use of administrative resources, political moods of the regional society. This approach allows dynamic modeling based on impact and relationship analysis.

The presented results of simulation modeling do not contradict the results of opinion polls and make it possible to form a set of measures that can be aimed at overcoming the negative impact on the regional society of both individual “leaders” and political parties. Analysis of the simulation results allows to increase both the political and social stability of the regional society, helps to prevent conflict moods and contradictions.

Author Biographies

Serhii Yevseiev, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Cyber Security and Information Technology

Yurii Ryabukha, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Senior Researcher

Department of Information Systems and Technologies Security

Oleksandr Milov, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Cyber Security and Information Technology

Stanislav Milevskyi, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Cyber Security and Information Technology

Serhii Pohasii, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Cyber Security and Information Technology

Yevgen Melenti, Juridical Personnel Training Institute for the Security Service of Ukraine Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University

PhD

Special Department No. 2 «Tactical-Special Training, Marksmanship Training and Special Physical Training»

Yevheniia Ivanchenko, National Aviation University

PhD, Professor

Department of Information Technology Security

Ihor Ivanchenko, National Aviation University

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Information Technology Security

Ivan Opirskyy, Lviv Polytechnic National University

Doctor of Technical Sciences

Department of Information Security

Igor Pasko, Scientific-Research Center of Missile Troops and Artillery

PhD, Senior Researcher

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Published

2021-12-29

How to Cite

Yevseiev, S., Ryabukha, Y. ., Milov, O., Milevskyi, S., Pohasii, S., Melenti, Y., Ivanchenko, Y., Ivanchenko, I., Opirskyy, I., & Pasko, I. (2021). Development of a method for assessing forecast of social impact in regional communities. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 6(2 (114), 30–43. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.249313

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 2 (114) (2021): Information technology. Industry control systems

Section

Information technology

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Copyright (c) 2021 Serhii Yevseiev, Yurii Ryabukha, Oleksandr Milov, Stanislav Milevskyi, Serhii Pohasii, Yevgen Melenti, Yevheniia Ivanchenko, Ihor Ivanchenko, Ivan Opirskyy, Igor Pasko

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